What should the West do about Ukraine?

Quote:

Originally posted by omuh

...
It's just indicative that some people want reunification. As for the proportion, only a valid vote with accepted voting condition would show that and it's far from being the case.

True, but combined with the protests, that we can see with our eyes, and conversations with pro united Ukraine supporters, its an indication, like you say that some people want reunification. We don't know that number, but it is significant. Unfortunately, the Ukraine government will never allow that vote to happen, so we'll likely never know what the actual percentage of separatists there are.

Quote:

Originally posted by Sugarpie

...

True, but combined with the protests, that we can see with our eyes, and conversations with pro united Ukraine supporters, its an indication, like you say that some people want reunification. We don't know that number, but it is significant. Unfortunately, the Ukraine government will never allow that vote to happen, so we'll likely never know what the actual percentage of separatists there are.

I agree with everything that you say, we jus need to figure out a way to stop all of the violence and get people to vote their true beliefs.

Quote:

Originally posted by Sugarpie

...

True, but combined with the protests, that we can see with our eyes, and conversations with pro united Ukraine supporters, its an indication, like you say that some people want reunification. We don't know that number, but it is significant. Unfortunately, the Ukraine government will never allow that vote to happen, so we'll likely never know what the actual percentage of separatists there are.

Protest and support can be done by a minority you know. Even if it's very visible, it doesn't mean it's the majority.
I have no idea what the proportions are because I'm not there and media tend to be biased both ways but I'm just saying all this should be considered with a grain of salt.
Also lets not forget that people also revolted for the opposite reason just before Crimea annexation and east revolts. I know it's not from the same regions in Ukraine but it's also something to consider to explain what's happening there. Would the east and Crimea have protested like this if the first riots didn't take place or without Russia being involved ?

Quote:

Originally posted by omuh

...
Protest and support can be done by a minority you know. Even if it's very visible, it doesn't mean it's the majority.
I have no idea what the proportions are because I'm not there and media tend to be biased both ways but I'm just saying all this should be considered with a grain of salt.
Also lets not forget that people also revolted for the opposite reason just before Crimea annexation and east revolts. I know it's not from the same regions in Ukraine but it's also something to consider to explain what's happening there. Would the east and Crimea have protested like this if the first riots didn't take place or without Russia being involved ?

I agree, and I never said it was a majority, I said it was a sizeable number. Even if its only 20%, thats a sizeable number of people who are unhappy enough with their government that they are willing protest and wish to separate ties with them. If that many are visible and vocal, how many support it but aren't out there protesting? As I mentioned before, there was a pro unity protest the other day, and estimates put the unity supporters at around 2000 people. They were broken up by a group of separatists with bats and shields and were estimated to be around 1500 people. If we can assume that both sides have a similar number of passionate people that want to go out and protest something, then approximately 43% of that cities population support separation. And while I agree thats not a majority, the point is, that a month ago, NO ONE was talking separation in the East, and now they are.

I guess that now we are going to get a spanking from the Russians because of the sanctions they might try to keep us from using the international space station, and not let us use some rocket engines.

Russia to ban US from using Space Station over Ukraine sanctions
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/russia/10828964/Russia-to-ban-US-from-using-Space-Station-over-Ukraine-sanctions.html

Quote:

Originally posted by Sugarpie

...
I agree, and I never said it was a majority, I said it was a sizeable number.

I'm pretty sure I recall you saying otherwise but I might be wrong as I usually read the thread pretty quickly. So my bad if I'm wrong but lets say that's not what I understood from all your previous posts on the matter.

Quote:

Originally posted by Sugarpie

Even if its only 20%, thats a sizeable number of people who are unhappy enough with their government that they are willing protest and wish to separate ties with them. If that many are visible and vocal, how many support it but aren't out there protesting?

Not necessarily many more as it's pretty common to have a vocal minority with the rest thinking otherwise or with no opinion.

Quote:

Originally posted by Sugarpie

As I mentioned before, there was a pro unity protest the other day, and estimates put the unity supporters at around 2000 people. They were broken up by a group of separatists with bats and shields and were estimated to be around 1500 people. If we can assume that both sides have a similar number of passionate people that want to go out and protest something, then approximately 43% of that cities population support separation.

That's a weird projection especially coming from a journalist
That would be assessing that those 2000/1500 people are representative of the rest of the population which is most likely not the case. If the total population was 350 000 person (it's just a random number), it doesn't mean 200 000 would be for unity and 150 000 for separation. It just means that 2000+1500 are motivated enough to go on the street and that's it.
You can't make global projections based on protests and random street interviews (even though that's what lots of media tends to do...)

Quote:

Originally posted by Sugarpie

And while I agree thats not a majority, the point is, that a month ago, NO ONE was talking separation in the East, and now they are.

That was my point when talking about a reaction to the previous pro-european riots and/or Russia's interventions, it could be just that.
Perhaps, if the problem was really there, they would have talked about it before when the government was pretty neutral towards europe/russia.

Quote:

Originally posted by omuh

...
I'm pretty sure I recall you saying otherwise but I might be wrong as I usually read the thread pretty quickly. So my bad if I'm wrong but lets say that's not what I understood from all your previous posts on the matter.

I said it about Crimea, not the uprisings in the East.

Quote:

Originally posted by Omuh

Not necessarily many more as it's pretty common to have a vocal minority with the rest thinking otherwise or with no opinion.

I agree, the minority is always more vocal, but that doesn't mean the majority doesn't have an opinion. If there were a vote, and in the vote there was 1 question with a yes or no answer, such as "Should Ukraine rejoin Russia - Yes or No". You would have minorities for both sides being very vocal; the yes side would hold rallies and so would the no side, and the majority of the population would watch the rallies from their couch. However....they will vote.

Quote:

Originally posted by Omuh

That's a weird projection especially coming from a journalist
That would be assessing that those 2000/1500 people are representative of the rest of the population which is most likely not the case. If the total population was 350 000 person (it's just a random number), it doesn't mean 200 000 would be for unity and 150 000 for separation. It just means that 2000+1500 are motivated enough to go on the street and that's it.
You can't make global projections based on protests and random street interviews (even though that's what lots of media tends to do...)

As I started to get into in my above comment, I agree that its not an entirely scientific way of estimating the number of supporters on EITHER side of a particular cause, but it could be somewhat indicative of levels of support. As I mentioned, the majority of the population will do nothing until it comes time to vote, and even then, you won't get 100% turn out at the polls. However, just because those people aren't joining rallies and protests doesn't mean that they don't have an opinion. It stands to reason that each side of a heated dispute would have a similar percentage of people people motivated enough to go out and protest and rally, and both sides will have supporters that are staying at home, but when /if it comes time to vote, they will support their cause. I will conceded that perhaps the Unity supporters are maybe not quite as motivated to join rallies yet, as there is some fear, and also some belief that it doesn't mater because they're the majority so rallies are not needed, but I believe thats changing as the threat of separation gets more serious.

Quote:

Originally posted by Omuh

That was my point when talking about a reaction to the previous pro-european riots and/or Russia's interventions, it could be just that.
Perhaps, if the problem was really there, they would have talked about it before when the government was pretty neutral towards europe/russia.

They maybe weren't talking separation, but the Ukrainian people have been talking about how poor their economic situation is for quite some time. As they see change in one part of the country, it gives them hope/strength to demand change in their part of the country.

Yes, I agree that part of the people at home who aren't vocal still have an opinion. I was just pointing out that it might not be the same proportions as the people we see in the street.
Also, if the real concern of separatists is the have a better economic situation, I'm pretty sure Russia isn't the best bet

On another note, rumors indicate that some US mercenaries (Blackwater) are now on the spot.

Quote:

Originally posted by omuh

Also, if the real concern of separatists is the have a better economic situation, I'm pretty sure Russia isn't the best bet

I completely agree, but desperate people do desperate things.

Quote:

Originally posted by Sugarpie

...
I completely agree, but desperate people do desperate things.

We had some separatist movement in France too (in Corsica, an island between France and Italy). They wanted to be independent but I'm pretty sure it wouldn't have gone right for them if it was the case. Maybe we should allow Russia to take over there too

Quote:

Originally posted by omuh

...
We had some separatist movement in France too (in Corsica, an island between France and Italy). They wanted to be independent but I'm pretty sure it wouldn't have gone right for them if it was the case. Maybe we should allow Russia to take over there too

Yeah we've had our problems in Canada too. Quebec (why is it always the French? :P) wanted(s) to separate from Canada, they even had a vote on it in 1995 and the separation movement barely lost with 49.4% of the vote.

Scotland anyone ?

Quote:

Originally posted by F1098

Scotland anyone ?

Yeah, thats coming up soon. I watched an interesting piece on how Scottish independence will affect the lives of the people living close to the border. It focused on a family of 4 who all live in Scotland and how both parents work, one in Scotland, the other in England, and the two kids who go to school; one in Scotland, the other in England. Their house is literally about 50 steps from the border along side a quaint little creek and a gorgeous stone bridge that crosses the creek and into England. They figure that they will likely lose their house to make room for a border crossing, and obviously the parent working in England, and the child going to school in England won't be able to any more, but interestingly enough, all members of the household support independence.

A set back for Sugarpie and Putin!

http://www.nytimes.com/2014/05/16/world/europe/ukraine-workers-take-to-streets-to-calm-Mariupol.html?hp&_r=0

Workers Take to Streets to Calm Tense Ukrainian City

By ANDREW E. KRAMERMAY 15, 2014


MARIUPOL, Ukraine — In what could represent a decisive turning point in the Ukrainian conflict and a setback for Russia, thousands of steelworkers fanned out Thursday over the city of Mariupol, establishing control over the streets and routing the pro-Kremlin militants who seized control several weeks ago.

By late Thursday, miners and steelworkers had deployed in at least five cities, including the regional capital, Donetsk, though they had not yet become the dominant force there that they are in Mariupol, the region’s second largest city and the site just last week of bloody confrontations between Ukrainian troops and pro-Russian militants,

Seriously...how fucking stupid and arrogant are you??

I've never once said I support Russia, or that I think what the separatists in Ukraine are doing is right or the best thing for them. I'll say it one more time so maybe you can get it into your thick fucking skull. I have said from day one that if people want to rejoin a country, and the majority are in favour of it, then why shouldn't they be allowed? I don't support their decision, but its their right. DO YOU UNDERSTAND THAT, OR DO I HAVE TO REPEAT IT?

I really don't care if I get my posting rights taken for this.

"A set back for Sugarpie and Putin"? Fuck you! Are you happy now? You finally got under my skin. You feel all warm and happy now because you got to me? You NightCruiser are a fucking idiot. You couldn't come up with an opinion about anything if Bloomberg didn't give it to you first. You're arrogant, small minded, and refuse to read anyones opinion if it doesn't agree with the one you were taught to believe. You're a troll of the worst kind, one that actually pretends to give a shit about the stuff he posts. I'm fucking sick of it. I am sick and fucking tired of you and your holier than thou attitude and failure to actually read anything I write. I'm done with you in this thread. Way to kill another thread with your stupid fucking comments asshole.

For some reason you have been assuming the pro Russians are the majority. This shows there are a good many who don't want to join Russia

Quote:

Originally posted by NightCruiser

For some reason you have been assuming the pro Russians are the majority. This shows there are a good many who don't want to join Russia

Once again, you don't fucking read. I've never said that the majority of Ukrainians want to join Russia. I said IF the majority want re-unification, then why not allow it. I also said there are regions (like Crimea) where there may be a majority of support. And just 1 page back I estimated that about 43% of the population of certain cities may be pro Russian supporters.

Open your eyes and actually READ, don't assume. I'd say that assuming makes an ass out of you and me...but in this case, you're the only ass.

Well we will never know for sure who is the majority so some of us think it is best to error on not giving Ukraine to a Dictator

Quote:

Originally posted by NightCruiser

Well we will never know for sure who is the majority so some of us think it is best to error on not giving Ukraine to a Dictator

You don't live there so your opinion is worthless.

Be advised that Putin is a former KGB high ranking officer, he doesn't like the west and what has occured in the Crimea was pre-planned. One does not place a military force on key locations overnight. That being said, will that be all? No..he will continue using the so called pro-russian militia saying: "See? This is what the people want so we will protect them" I'll be the first to admit I'm wrong, but frankly...I think I am not.