What should the West do about Ukraine?

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Originally posted by phoenixbreed

When did these other countries ask for our help exactly? Let them come to us and then we should Bill them.
Fix our economy in the same go. We are sitting on a literal army of trained specialists from construction to military presence to paper pushers. Hire out and charge appropriate rates depending on the job. Just need to write out a Morales clause so as to ensure we don't put our own people in compromising situations

Yea the morals problem. You would have to have commanders, Military police etc or it would end up something like post war Iraq. Independent Contractors going in and running a muck
Sugarpie, this has the potential of spiraling out of control. Just wait and see. Unfortunately our Military can't just wait and see. They have to be in place, just in case

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Originally posted by demographer_2

I just hope that Canada stays out of it, I am only a kilometer out of the US. This is to close for my likes. I grew up in the states, but I live in Canada now.

I don't think that you need to worry bout any attacks happening here, nobody is that desperate not yet I don't think,

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Originally posted by NightCruiser

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Yea the morals problem. You would have to have commanders, Military police etc or it would end up something like post war Iraq. Independent Contractors going in and running a muck
Sugarpie, this has the potential of spiraling out of control. Just wait and see. Unfortunately our Military can't just wait and see. They have to be in place, just in case

The more politicians get involved in it with our military, and "private contractors" the worse the situation will become.

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Originally posted by NightCruiser

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Sugarpie, this has the potential of spiraling out of control. Just wait and see. Unfortunately our Military can't just wait and see. They have to be in place, just in case

If you really believe this has the potential to escalate into nuclear war, you need to have your head examined.

What a strange conversation this has been, though I cannot admit that I read most of it. So indulge me my ignorance with this quick summary of what I think is going to come down.

The Ukrainian gov't cannot resist the forces of the Russian Army, it's special forces and whatever indigenous powers loyal to Russian. It's pretty simple.

The forthcoming election I would expect to be pretty nasty and Russia will make every effort to disrupt it by offering the view of chaos and threats to the indigenous Russian loyalists as an excuse to send in more "militia" types without national identity, or worst case to intervene formally.

It will be a power play by a man who clearly understands power and is unafraid of using it in pursuit of his imperialistic goals of re-establishing as much of the Soviet Union as is practical. Europe will dither because it has neither the domestic will, enough energy independence, or military strength to even show up.

Nuclear war is not a viable option for anyone.

American forces will not/should not be mobilized. My full sympathies are with the Ukrainian gov't, but they do not have the wherewithal to finish what they started.

Hope I am very wrong in all of this.

F.

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Originally posted by F1098

What a strange conversation this has been, though I cannot admit that I read most of it. So indulge me my ignorance with this quick summary of what I think is going to come down.

The Ukrainian gov't cannot resist the forces of the Russian Army, it's special forces and whatever indigenous powers loyal to Russian. It's pretty simple.

No they can't. But lets make it clear that there no Russian special forces in the Ukraine, and the only members of the Russian Army that are in the Ukraine were there LONG before any of this current conflict started....like decades before.

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Originally posted by F

The forthcoming election I would expect to be pretty nasty and Russia will make every effort to disrupt it by offering the view of chaos and threats to the indigenous Russian loyalists as an excuse to send in more "militia" types without national identity, or worst case to intervene formally.

It has both the potential to be nasty, and to be a calming effect. The Ukrainians for unity, and the separatists both want political change in the Ukraine, as everyone feels that the last government was corrupt and has financially destroyed the country. If the people can come together and elect someone that they feel can deliver positive change, then it will buy some time and this separation talk my die down. Of course the Russian government is going to be stirring the pot a little and encourage separatists that regardless of the outcome, they are better off re-joining Russia.

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Originally posted by F

It will be a power play by a man who clearly understands power and is unafraid of using it in pursuit of his imperialistic goals of re-establishing as much of the Soviet Union as is practical. Europe will dither because it has neither the domestic will, enough energy independence, or military strength to even show up.

Putin certainly has something to gain by encouraging and having the Ukraine re-join Russia, but he's smart enough to not take it by force. It remains to be seen if the whole country re-joins (very doubtful) or if a small portion re-joins, or if none of it does. Unless Russian troops hostilely take over the country, I don't think you'll see any European troops intervene.

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Originally posted by F

Nuclear war is not a viable option for anyone.

You said it sister....its just not gonna happen.

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Originally posted by F

American forces will not/should not be mobilized. My full sympathies are with the Ukrainian gov't, but they do not have the wherewithal to finish what they started.

Again...unless you start seeing Russian troops roll across the border, forcibly taking over cities that are not separatists, I don't think you're gonna see a single US troop on the ground.

We disagree only on the subject of Russian special forces in the country. Everyone that I have talked to at the Pentagon ( former students mostly) say that the pre-existing forces ( that you reference ) have largely been replaced by special forces. Same head count, far more capability. No, documentation not possible.

Also, I don't think...no, I do know that you will not see US forces on the ground under any circumstances. According to the Pew poll referenced in this morning's paper the American public's support for ANY foreign involvement is nearly non existent ( 30 April WSJ). A trillion dollars spent digging sand looking for phantom WMD's and abandoning the initial effort in Afghanistan do wonders for further foreign involvement. The public has a real point, but it will hurt us in the long run.

Putin is ambitious and certainly not stupid and he will do everything possible to achieve his goals. Which he has articulated so well to the Duma.
The Ukraine is toast in my view.

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Originally posted by F1098

We disagree only on the subject of Russian special forces in the country. Everyone that I have talked to at the Pentagon ( former students mostly) say that the pre-existing forces ( that you reference ) have largely been replaced by special forces. Same head count, far more capability. No, documentation not possible.

Also, I don't think...no, I do know that you will not see US forces on the ground under any circumstances. According to the Pew poll referenced in this morning's paper the American public's support for ANY foreign involvement is nearly non existent ( 30 April WSJ). A trillion dollars spent digging sand looking for phantom WMD's and abandoning the initial effort in Afghanistan do wonders for further foreign involvement. The public has a real point, but it will hurt us in the long run.

Putin is ambitious and certainly not stupid and he will do everything possible to achieve his goals. Which he has articulated so well to the Duma.
The Ukraine is toast in my view.

I don't know what the point of putting special forces in to replace the 20,000 troops that were already there would be. Remember those troops were there PRIOR to the Crimea shenanigans, and replacing them after would be next to impossible to do as it would mean sending troops across the border when the world was watching. I suppose they could have done it beforehand, but why? They wouldn't wouldn't need special forces to take over the bases in Crimea, as they already had control of them. And the Ukraine forces are stacked up at the Crimea border, so its not like those troops can easily leave.

Russia has 40,000 troops with tanks etc on the border of the east. They are there to intimidate and then invade

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Originally posted by Sugarpie

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If you really believe this has the potential to escalate into nuclear war, you need to have your head examined.

If you have 2 Super powers in a Cold war status again then there is a huge risk that errors in judgment will happen. Electronic errors that can make one country think the other is attacking it. More believable since you now have an antagonistic relationship. Errors in judgement. Trigger happy peons. In a real short time we went from a working relationship with Russia to imposing sanctions on them. Leaders of both countries verbally attacking each other. Even in the good times Russia and the US have been paranoid about each others true intentions. We came really close to Nuclear war with Russia with the Cuban Missile crisis. That was at the height of the cold war. That sort of thing can happen again.
So now we know for sure that Russia's intention is to bring back the Soviet Union aka the new name-- Federation. There is no telling how much firepower we will put in NATO treaty countries near Ukraine--ie Poland etc Obama has held off on the Missile defense system we wanted to put in place, because of Russia's protest. Will we now go through with putting that defense system in place? Russia cannot beat us in a conventional war so they will have to resort to other means in my opinion.
Cold war. Heightened alerts/ Error prone electronics. Desperation....Not good for 2 countries loaded with Nukes

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Originally posted by NightCruiser

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Russia has 40,000 troops with tanks etc on the border of the east. They are there to intimidate and then invade

You don't know that, thats what you believe. There is zero fact in this statement. Zero.

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Originally posted by NC

Electronic errors that can make one country think the other is attacking it.

Yeah, I saw the movie War Games too...it was pretty cool. I used to think Matthew Broderick, was sexy in a geeky kinda way, but then I saw him in Ferris Bueller's Day Off and not only was he sexy, but also cool. Ohhh...back to your point. Are you fucking serious?? The nations nuclear stockpile isn't being run by a Commodore 64 in someones basement...you know this right?

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Originally posted by NC

Trigger happy peons.

Riiiiight...cuz most bored, broke, soldiers sitting in missile silos in Russia and US have nothing better to do than start World War 3.

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Originally posted by NC

In a real short time we went from a working relationship with Russia to imposing sanctions on them.

Ummm...NEWS FLASH: American people, companies, and governments are still working with Russians.

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Originally posted by NC

We came really close to Nuclear war with Russia with the Cuban Missile crisis. That was at the height of the cold war.

Yeah...and it didn't happen...even though missiles were 90 miles off the coast of Florida, we were WAY less educated about the destruction nukes cause, and like you said we were at the HEIGHT of the cold war. This is the Ukraine not 90 miles from Florida, and we're not even close to the the level of tension there was then.

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Originally posted by NC

So now we know for sure that Russia's intention is to bring back the Soviet Union aka the new name-- Federation.

Ummmm...we do? Did I miss a press conference? I don't seem to remember a release stating that Putin is calling up the old band and going on tour again. I'm not sure if he can get Kazakhstan, I mean after the hit CD they had, I don't see a reason for them to get back in the band. Again...you are speculating. Even if Ukraine re-joins Russia, there is ZERO evidence that other former Soviet nations will re-join, and even less evidence that Russia will invade them.

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Originally posted by NC

There is no telling how much firepower we will put in NATO treaty countries near Ukraine--ie Poland etc

Wait....Russia is going to take over Poland too? Damn, I must have missed another press conference.

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Originally posted by NC

Obama has held off on the Missile defense system we wanted to put in place, because of Russia's protest. Will we now go through with putting that defense system in place?

Nah...you're fucked. According to you the nukes are gonna start flying any day now. No way Obama can get that system up in time. THANKS OBAMA.

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Originally posted by NC

Russia cannot beat us in a conventional war so they will have to resort to other means in my opinion.

I saw Red Dawn (the original) and they did a pretty good job of making at least Montana their bitch.

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Originally posted by NC

Cold war. Heightened alerts/ Error prone electronics. Desperation....Not good for 2 countries loaded with Nukes

You forgot paranoid fucking weirdos.

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Originally posted by Sugarpie

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I don't know what the point of putting special forces in to replace the 20,000 troops that were already there would be.

I can imagine that part of it would be to train and aid pro-Russian sympathisers in the Ukraine. Similar to what the US did in Afganistan with the green berets etc. It gives a lot more legitimacy when you enter a sovereign nation if you've already been busy fomenting trouble among the locals .

SP..worried about your denial of Russian troops massed on the border. ( Do I understand you correctly ?) This is a commonly reported news item. Fortunatley things like that are easily verified via satellite imagery. Special Forces in Ukraine? Let me put it this way, where are the UN observers that were to be the world's unbiased eyes and ears on matters like this ?

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Originally posted by F1098

SP..worried about your denial of Russian troops massed on the border. ( Do I understand you correctly ?) This is a commonly reported news item. Fortunatley things like that are easily verified via satellite imagery. Special Forces in Ukraine? Let me put it this way, where are the UN observers that were to be the world's unbiased eyes and ears on matters like this ?

Oh no, I know there are troops on the border, on both sides.

What I'm doubtful about is the 20,000 Russian troops that were already in Crimea (prior to the uprising) since the mid 1990's, as part of an agreement between Ukraine and Russia, I don't see what purpose it would serve to exchange them prior to the uprising. Once Crimea had their vote, the border between Crimea and Ukraine was locked down, and thousands of Ukraine troops stationed on their side of the border. The Russian troops helping the Crimea people couldn't just leave and go elsewhere in Ukraine to help other groups start protests because then Ukraine would take over those Crimea navel bases that are so key in this whole conflict. Sure...maybe a handful of special forces got out prior to the border being shut down, but they wouldn't risk sending too many. And on the other hand, why replace 20,000 grunt guys with special forces just to guard naval bases that you already had control of. It doesn't make sense. I can understand why Russian would want to have some special forces inside Ukraine, to stir the pot, and help the separatists out, but really can't see them coming (in any mass numbers) from the original group of troops stationed in Crimea. Perhaps some have snuck across the border, perhaps some came from the Crimea region....who really knows for sure, but we know that there isn't any massive number of Russian troops (special forces or regular) within the borders of Ukraine.

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Originally posted by Sugarpie

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Yeah, I saw the movie War Games too...it was pretty cool. I used to think Matthew Broderick, was sexy in a geeky kinda way, but then I saw him in Ferris Bueller's Day Off and not only was he sexy, but also cool. Ohhh...back to your point. Are you fucking serious?? The nations nuclear stockpile isn't being run by a Commodore 64 in someones basement...you know this right?

Except he's referencing a real event, while you're crushing on a movie star.

The world was saved from nuclear war by Stanislav Petrov in the early 1980s when he correctly determined/guessed/hoped/prayed that the Russian warning systems malfunctioned, and the alert that the Americans had launched their weapons was erroneous.

Granted it's not exactly current news. But computers fuck up. And humans are heavily dependent on and trusting of computers.

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Originally posted by Bangledeshica

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Except he's referencing a real event, while you're crushing on a movie star.

The world was saved from nuclear war by Stanislav Petrov in the early 1980s when he correctly determined/guessed/hoped/prayed that the Russian warning systems malfunctioned, and the alert that the Americans had launched their weapons was erroneous.

Granted it's not exactly current news. But computers fuck up. And humans are heavily dependent on and trusting of computers.

My point once again being that the worlds nuclear stockpile is no longer run by a Commodore 64. Computers are thousands of times more advanced today than back then, and when push comes to shove, there is a very good chance that people are not actually going to push that button/turn that key, even when they're supposed to. I know we can't rely on that, but seriously...do you actually believe that we are closer to nuclear war today, because of the events in the Ukraine than we were 6 months ago before any of this started?

I don't know if this is true but the Russians use something called a deadman switch, which means someone has to be there to tell the computer not to act. Where the US uses a switch that tells the computer to act. If it is true there is a big difference in systems. I hope what I heard was not correct.

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Originally posted by Sugarpie

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My point once again being that the worlds nuclear stockpile is no longer run by a Commodore 64. Computers are thousands of times more advanced today than back then, and when push comes to shove, there is a very good chance that people are not actually going to push that button/turn that key, even when they're supposed to. I know we can't rely on that, but seriously...do you actually believe that we are closer to nuclear war today, because of the events in the Ukraine than we were 6 months ago before any of this started?

You'd make a fabulous politician.

And yeah, we're a few seconds closer, potentially working towards a minute or two depending on who does what, where, when, and to whom.

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Originally posted by Lia

I don't know if this is true but the Russians use something called a deadman switch, which means someone has to be there to tell the computer not to act. Where the US uses a switch that tells the computer to act. If it is true there is a big difference in systems. I hope what I heard was not correct.

My guess, and its only a guess is that how you describe the Russian system isn't correct. I say this because if you read story about Stanislav Petrov that Bangles...errr deshica mentioned above it talks about how Petrov needed to contact his superiors of any impeding US attacks so they could launch a counter attack. The system alerted him of an apparent US launch, but he used his own intelligence and deducted that the detected launch was in fact a computer error. He didn't contact his superiors and Russia didn't retaliate. Granted, that was 30 years ago and things may have changed. Lets hope since the warming of the cold war that both Russian and American systems make it more difficult to launch nuclear weapons.

*EDIT* Ok...apparently it does exist, but its been debated whether or not it was ever turned over to full automation, and its unknown if the system is still used today.

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Originally posted by Lia

I don't know if this is true but the Russians use something called a deadman switch, which means someone has to be there to tell the computer not to act. Where the US uses a switch that tells the computer to act. If it is true there is a big difference in systems. I hope what I heard was not correct.

Google. Wikipedia. Yahoo Answers. Even Bing, I guess, if you have to.

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Originally posted by Sugarpie

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My guess, and its only a guess is that how you describe the Russian system isn't correct. I say this because if you read story about [Link] that Bangles...errr deshica mentioned above it talks about how Petrov needed to contact his superiors of any impeding US attacks so they could launch a counter attack. The system alerted him of an apparent US launch, but he used his own intelligence and deducted that the detected launch was in fact a computer error. He didn't contact his superiors and Russia didn't retaliate. Granted, that was 30 years ago and things may have changed. Lets hope since the warming of the cold war that both Russian and American systems make it more difficult to launch nuclear weapons.

That'd be pretty hilarious though, if there was still a guy sitting at that same computer now. Just being like "Fuck... when's the last time we replaced the warning light bulb? This sucks."