With the end of pointless Spring Training upon us, and the beginning of the "proper" baseball season in sight, I thought I'd put together a season preview of every team in the league, rating their prospects and expectations in 2007.
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AMERICAN LEAGUE - EAST
New York Yankees
Preseason changes - The more things change, the more they stay the same. Despite the Motown Massacre and an unexpected defeat to the Tigers in the ALDS last year, the Yankees continue to be the monster on the American League horizon that they usually are. The biggest loss to their league-leading run production will be Gary Sheffield, ironically Tigers-bound, but which should be offset by a full season from a healthy Hideki Matsui after missing a large part of 2006 with a wrist injury. Bernie Williams may or may not have said farewell to his familiar pinstripe uniform, as the ballclub decide whether or not his services are required. But it's pitching that's proved to be a thorn in New York's side over the past couple of years, and they now appear to have the strength in depth to cover any sudden injuries or losses of form. Old boy Andy Pettitte rejoins to give them a lefty presence to replace that of Randy Johnson, who ended his rollercoaster two-year stint with the club. Kei Igawa, an unknown but promising factor from Japan, comes in to fill the gap left by Jaret Wright's trade to Baltimore. Luis Vizcaino is the main bullpen addition, having been brought in from Arizona in the Johnson trade. Veteran 1B Doug Mientkiewicz also joins, which will allow slugger Jason Giambi to concentrate on his DH duties and not get hurt every ten minutes in the field.
Strengths - Again, there's really no need to highlight the offensive potential the Yankees have in their batting lineup. Alex Rodriguez, Derek Jeter, a fit-again Giambi, Bobby Abreu - all names you know, and all names you know are more than capable of bringing the runs in. Notable pitching strengthening, both in the 'pen and in the rotation, should make a difference too - if anything goes wrong with their starting five they have options such as Darrell Rasner, Jeff Karstens and uber-prospect Phillip Hughes waiting in the wings. Basically, nothing's gotten worse, which is ominous enough for everyone else in itself.
Weaknesses - If there was still a question mark over the Bombers' upcoming season, it would still be pitching-related. The bullpen still looks a little suspect behind ageing saves supremo Mariano Rivera, despite the additions of Vizcaino and hard-throwing wideboy sophomore Chris Britton. Contrary to what you might have read in the remarkably cynical sporting press - A-Rod and Jeter hate each other, Rivera's arm will fall off if he pitches more than a single inning in a weekend, George Steinbrenner will commit baseball genocide if his team don't win a World Series this time - everything else looks okay.
Key Man - Andy Pettitte. Much has been made of his return to the Bronx, and much of that has managed to gloss over the fact that he didn't actually have that great of a 2006 - his ERA and WHIP were up, his wins were down. Pettitte could be the man that New York turn to if rotation issues (such as the elderly Mussina suffering arm troubles, the surprise of the season Chien-Ming Wang not producing his sophomore success, the ever-suspect Carl Pavano getting hurt again, or Kei Igawa proving to be another false dawn from the Land of the Rising Sun) rear their ugly head again. You could go with A-Rod in this section, but deep down everybody knows he'll produce like an All-Star as usual, so no worries there.
Last season - 1st. This season - 1st. Little needed to be tweaked at the Bronx this winter, other than a re-affirmation of ambition. If the Yankees are ever to win another World Series, it will probably be with a group of players much less talented than this.
Boston Red Sox
Preseason changes - The poetically beautiful World Series win of 2004 is now threatening to become a distant memory for the Red Sox. It's tough enough for BoSox fans to be perpetual runners-up to division mates the Yankees (it's been 11 years since they've managed to finish ahead of their illustrious East Coast neighbours) - but last year they couldn't even manage that, slipping behind the Toronto Blue Jays in the East pecking order for the first time since 1994. Sure they still finished 10 games above .500, but that's not going to be enough for a fanbase as accustomed to achievement as Boston's. Still, things are looking up for the boys from Beantown, as GM Theo Epstein has managed to put together a vastly improved outfit from the one that finished last season. Joining veterans Curt Schilling and Tim Wakefield in what is arguably one of the very best rotations in the American League will be Japanese "rookie" Daisuke Matsuzaka, who pitched dominantly throughout his career in Asia and will be a focal point of Boston's early-season form. The infield and outfield will have at least one new face each too - J.D Drew will man right field after a mammoth $70m, five-year deal, and Julio Lugo will see the majority of time at shortstop. Pitchers Joel Pineiro (from the Mariners), Runelvys Hernandez (Royals), Brendan Donnelly and J.C Romero (both Angels) will slot into various bullpen roles. There have been wholesale coaching changes, too.
Strengths - Boston were scrabbling around for starting pitching at points during last year, with very mixed degrees of success, but that should be avoided this time around - as well as Matsuzaka, Schilling and Wakefield, last year's closer Jon Papelbon will be returned to the rotation, and the bullpen has been solidified somewhat too. Offense shouldn't be a problem either - alongside the ever-dependable David Ortiz there should be a fit-and-focused Manny Ramirez and a keen-to-impress J.D Drew. Show me a more dangerous trio in the A.L and I'll show you a decent Steve Mclaren haircut.
Weaknesses - Now that Papelbon is back to being a starter after a very successful season at closer, the BoSox don't have a natural replacement to handle ninth-inning duties, especially as his predecessor Keith Foulke didn't re-sign with the club. There are a handful of candidates, the leader being failed starter Joel Pineiro, but nobody really stands out as being anywhere Papelbon's league. Oh, and will the enigmatic Manny go AWOL at some point during the season?
Key Man - Manny Ramirez. Everyone knows how important he is to this team. But does he? More importantly, does he care? The Red Sox look so much more formidable with Ramirez in their side to give Big Papi some protection, and without him they can look one-dimensional and offensively flimsy. With him and Ortiz alongside offensive tools like walks machine Kevin Youkilis and new lead-off man Lugo, they look like they could go far.
Last season - 3rd. This season - 2nd. They've made the improvements they badly needed to make, and maybe even more - on paper they look good to compete with the Yankees on a level footing again. If everyone can stay reasonably healthy, expect a Wild Card race at the very least.
Toronto Blue Jays
Preseason changes - It's all about the Hurt. After the Blue Jays' free-spending 2005 offseason, it was wondered whether their front office would ever dare to put hands-in-pockets again. But they did, and it resulted in a two-year, $18m contract for Frank Thomas, the man they call the Big Hurt. One heck of a payrise for a player who took home just $500,000 last year with the A's, but if he can put up similar numbers to those of 2006 he'll be worth every cent. The other major positional addition is Royce Clayton, who should take most of John McDonald's at-bats at shortstop. The Jays will attempt to offset the loss of Ted Lilly to the Cubs by filling the rear slots of their rotation with veteran free agents Tomo Ohka and John Thomson. They also said goodbye to catcher Bengie Molina (Giants), Frank Catalanotto (Rangers) and bullpen ace Justin Speier (Angels).
Strengths - Adding Big Hurt to a lineup already stacked with offensive power in the shape of Troy Glaus, Vernon Wells, Lyle Overbay and a healthy Alex Rios seems to imply that they feel they can clobber teams to death every night. Well, I'm more or less inclined to agree with them - and they just about have the pitching reliability to carry it off. Roy Halladay is the best pitcher of his type out there, and closer B.J Ryan is forging his reputation as one of the premier AL firemen.
Weaknesses - Outside of Halladay, A.J Burnett and maybe Gus Chacin, the bottom of the Jays' rotation isn't set and could be suspect. There are no shortage of possibilities - Ohka is the favourite for one, along woth Thomson, Shawn Marcum, Casey Janssen and Josh Towers - but none of those will be of particularly sterling quality.
Key Man - Roy Halladay. His name seems to have become synonymous with the word "injury", so this may be why his reputation doesn't command the same respect as Johan Santana's. But he's probably the bets pitcher in the division when he's healthy, and the Jays' rotation looks half-empty without him.
Last season - 2nd. This season - 3rd. They're no worse than they were last year - I just have a feeling that the Red Sox are that much better to leapfrog them again. Don't count them out though, their run-scoring ability has the potential to be jaw-dropping.
Baltimore Orioles
Preseason changes - Here's the thing with the Orioles - every year, their name is briefly linked with the top free agent prospects on the market. And every year, said free agent prospects say "no thanks" to whatever the O's are offering and move elsewhere, usually for just a little more than the O's are offering. So when the front office gave Sam Perlozzo $42m extra to spend, it wasn't that he didn't want to spend it on a Soriano or a J.D Drew or whoever, it's that he couldn't. Instead he went out and shopped for a few pieces to improve the worst part of his ballclub's 2006 roster - the bullpen. The only guys that held onto their jobs are young closer Chris Ray and Todd Williams - but they'll now be joined in the newly-enriched relief corps by former closer Danys Baez, leftie Jamie Walker, submariner Chad Bradford, John Parrish and former Rookie of the Year Scott Williamson. Jaret Wright adds to the rotation in a trade from the Yankees, and former Devil Ray and Astro LF/3B Aubrey Huff will share the offensive load - as will LF Jay Payton, in from the A's.
Strengths - Same as always. One of the better offensive middle infields in baseball, Miguel Tejada and Brian Roberts, should continue to post great numbers at production-thin positions. But it's the pitching that will improve the Orioles this year after an appalling '06. A rotation of Erik Bedard, Daniel Cabrera, Jaret Wright, Adam Loewen and (at the time of writing) Steve Trachsel looks a lot better than last year's (Bruce Chen, Rodrigo Lopez), even with the likely season-ending injury to Kris Benson. Not to mention the bullpen, which has gone from looking like one of the worst (13th in ERA last year) to one of the best. There's also a lot of youth in the team (Cabrera, Patterson, Markakis, Loewen, Penn, Gomez, Stern, Burres) that can be relied on to get better.
Weaknesses - If Tejada and catcher Ramon Hernandez don't get it done offensively every night, where do the runs come from? The acquisition of the useful Huff will help some, and Nick Markakis projects to improve from a nice and solid .291-16-62 rookie year, but these guys just aren't in the same league as the other hitters they're facing in this division every week. Oh, and relying on youth is fine - provided the youth comes through for you.
Key Man - Miguel Tejada. Who else? No matter what the O's are planning for other areas of their team, they're banking on Miggy having his usual All-Star season as the best power-hitting shortstop in the game.
Last season - 4th. This season - 4th. Making steady improvements year-on-year and putting faith in the kids - that's what'll get the Orioles back near the top of the division again. Might take a couple of years, but they're heading in the right direction.
Tampa Bay Devil Rays
Preseason changes - Call me crazy, and forgive me for thinking so, but I thought the aim of the offseason was to find out what your weaknesses are and draft in some help to make them less of a weakness? Given this simple approach to "getting better", you have to wonder why the D-Rays decided not to do much shopping and stick with more or less the same roster they finished up with last year. Free agent 3rd baseman Akinori Iwamura arrived from Japan in another one of those "posting" situations, and looks to be a useful slugger, but 3rd base is the one position the Rays are strong at. Jae Kuk Ryu, a Korean right-hander from the Cubs, and Scott Dohmann, another rightie from Kansas, were picked up along with infielder Brendan Harris from the Reds. Umm...actually, that's it.
Strengths - Despite looking woefully weak on paper, the Rays do have some notable strengths. Scott Kazmir may not be THE young pitcher on everyone's minds any more because of the glut of breakthough rookies last season, but he's still better than most of them. They also boast one of the best young outfields in baseball, with the multi-tool Carl Crawford, Rocco Baldelli, Jonny Gomes and Delmon Young (yes, him) expected to get better and provide the bulk of the offense in Florida. There's plenty of other young talent washing around at this ballclub, more so than most - B.J Upton, Evan (not Eva) Longoria, Elijah Dukes and Ben Zobrist spring to mind, and you don't have to look too far beneath the surface to find more.
Weaknesses - An Earl Weaver quote for you - "Nobody likes to hear it, because it's dull, but the reason you win or lose is darn near always the same - pitching." And the Rays have precious little of that. You can have all the durable batters and outfield prospects you like, but if you don't have solid, reliable pitching in your ballclub you're not going to win games. And the Rays don't have solid, reliable pitching. It might not be quite as bad as it looks on paper, but it's pretty bad. Their rotation is potentially deep, but it's stacked with guys of roughly the same ability - and their ability is nothing to write home about. Casey Fossum, Tim Corcoran, J.P Howell...? These guys, in this division?
Key Man - Scott Kazmir, without a shadow of a doubt. The hopes of the entire Tampa Bay pitching staff rest on his young shoulders, and not unreasonably so either. His talent is there for all to see - at the tender age of 23 he's more or less already reached ace level and is the only real proven pitching quality on this team. If he goes down hurt as he did last year, expect the Rays to struggle more than they're likely to anyway. He'll need to stay healthy and throw like he did in his injury-shortened 2006 (10-8, 3.24 ERA) - if he does, the world is his oyster.
Last season - 5th. This season - 5th. The Rays are a difficult team to hate. But you have to improve an awful lot to make headway in a division like this, and I just don't think the Rays have improved at all. As promising as some of their youngsters are, you need pitching to win.
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AMERICAN LEAGUE - CENTRAL
Chicago White Sox
Preseason changes - It's easy to forget that the White Sox are just one season departed from having "World Champions" written across their collective foreheads. The reasons are few and a little unfair. They didn't make the postseason in 2006, partly because they were battling it out in the same division as eventual World Series runners-up the Tigers and everyone's favourite dark horses the Twins. Also, their cross-town neighbours the Cubs have stolen a lot of the preseason limelight by collecting an expensive shopping list of players as long as A.J Pierzynski's throwing arm. But make no mistake about it, the Pale Hose are still a formidable and well-rounded outfit still capable of great things. Aside from a few tweaks here and there, the Sox return in the same shape as they departed our screens in September. The bullpen has been rebuilt a little in the shape of promising (and towering) flamethrower Andrew Sisco from the Royals and former Cubs and Giants reliever David Aardsma. Gavin Floyd (from the Phillies) is a straight replacement for Freddy Garcia in an otherwise unchanged rotation, and Darin Erstad (Angels) will provide infield and outfield cover (and maybe just snag himself an everyday job). Look for starting prospects John Danks (Rangers) and Gio Gonzalez (Phillies) to make waves at some point too.
Strengths - Mark Buehrle, Jose Contreras and Jon Garland are still at the top of the rotation - and trying to pick the ace from those three is like trying to pick your least favourite Neville brother. Jermaine Dye is coming off an MVP-calibre career year, and is one of the better multi-tool oufielders in the game. Sox skipper Ozzie Guillen continues to have the ability to extract every last drop of offensive utilization from his team at every opportunity, playing the "small-ball" game better than most, and he has built himself a team that responds well to his managerial style. Simply put, they look solid.
Weaknesses - Their offense beyond Thome and Dye looks a little ordinary, their center field candidates (and outfield depth) leave a little to be desired, Thome is unlikely to play too much during Interleague play and their bullpen has a few variables in it. But these are the only outstanding issues on a team that looks fairly strong from top to bottom. I wouldn't write off their 2007 postseason chances based on anything I've just mentioned. Would you?
Key Man- Jermaine Dye. AL Comeback Player of the Year Jim Thome got back to his best during last season, but Dye stepped it up a notch with one heck of a career year too and will be looked on to get close to that kind of performance again this year.
Last season - 3rd. This season - 1st. Not because they've improved particularly drastically, but because they've bolstered in certain crucial areas - and I don't believe their two main divisional rivals from last year, the Twins and Tigers, will be able to post the same win totals.
Cleveland Indians
Preseason changes - The Indians were woefully disappointing last term, and manager Eric Wedge came under some criticism for not managing a talented young team correctly. GM Mark Shapiro didn't mess around in the offseason - he identified the Tribe's main weakness, relief pitching, then went right out and fixed it. A revamped bullpen features not one, but two new closing options - Joe Borowski (Marlins) and Roberto Hernandez (Mets) - who, along with Aaron Fultz (Phillies) and should improve a dire 2006 relief corps. Former Red Sox closer Keith Foulke was also brought to Ohio as a free agent, but decided to retire instead. Second base will also feature a talented young newcomer in Josh Barfield, brought over in a trade with the Padres after an impressive rookie season. Veterans David Dellucci and Trot Nixon will platoon in the outfield to add some much-needed experience to the Indians' lineup.
Strengths - Only the Yankees scored more runs last year than the Tribe, and that trend looks set to continue. Grady Sizemore isn't a natural leadoff man, but he is a multi-tool outfielder capable of very big things indeed, and with sluggers like Victor Martinez and the dominative Travis Hafner batting behind him this team will always score runs. A solid, experienced rotation (Sabathia, Byrd, Westbrook, Lee) tinged with youthful promise (Sowers, Carmona) should rank amongst the league's best. Barfield has a very high ceiling of accomplishment, and Cleveland fans are anticipating a great sophomore year for him.
Weaknesses - This year some of the same problems remain, such as catcher Martinez's and the infield squads' defensive liabilities, especially up the middle. This should be helped somewhat by the capture of Barfield, but shortstop Jhonny Peralta will have to improve twofold if he wants to keep his everyday job. Also, why can't this ballclub bunt or base run very well? Those are baseball fundamentals, Wedgie.
Key Man - Travis Hafner. Everyone knows about Pronk's ability to mash a baseball - but the one thing stopping his name being uttered in the same breath as Albert Pujols or David Ortiz is that he has yet to play a full season for the Indians due to an unfortunate catalogue of injuries. If he stays fit and plays 150+ games....well, prepare to be amazed.
Last season - 4th. This season - 2nd. I try and stay as impartial as possible with these things, so please allow me a single moment of favouritism by putting my Tribe above the Tigers and Twins and earmarking them as potential challengers for what is, undoubledly, THE toughest division in the game. It isn't that hard to believe.
Detroit Tigers
Preseason changes - The Tigers counted on two primary strengths to get themselves to their first World Series since 1984 - a stellar bullpen, a reliable starting pitching crew and a penchant for hitting the home run. So it might seem odd to some that these are precisely the two areas that the Detroit front office chose to go and improve on ready for 2007. They added a useful piece to their setup system in veteran Jose Mesa from the Rockies, and another potentially important asset with young leftie Edward Campusano, a Rule 5 draftee formerly in the Cubs system. But perhaps their most exciting pickup was that of former Yankees motormouth Gary Sheffield, who will split his time between the DH slot and covering the corner outfield positions. Other than that it was a pretty quiet winter in the Motor City.
Strengths - They had no less than seven players slap at least 15 home runs last year - and the home run still seems to be the Tigers' preferred weapon of choice, boasting such assets as Craig Monroe, Marcus Thames, Magglio Ordonez and Curtis Granderson. Ordonez aside, these guys won't hit for a high average - but they'll hit hard. That counts for a lot alongside experienced hands like catcher Ivan "Pudge" Rodriguez, Sheffield and Carlos Guillen. Behind a solid, durable rotation featuring the likes of Kenny Rogers and an improving Jeremy Bonderman, plus an eye-wateringly talented bullpen of Fernando Rodney, Todd Jones and Joel Zumaya, the Tigers look and feel like they know what they're doing. If it ain't broke, why fix it?
Weaknesses - The Tigers lineup doesn't have any obvious holes, although some might suggest that guys like Nate Robertson and Kenny Rogers will be lucky to have seasons as strong as did a second time around. It will also do well not to rely too heavily on the big-name acquisition of Gary Sheffield either, as he is entering the back end of a glittering career and can no longer be counted on to underpin the batting order like he was able to in his Seattle and Atlanta days.
Key Man - Tough to pick a single player out as being the lynchpin of an evenly-spread side, but I'm going to go for the often unheralded Magglio Ordonez. His numbers have consistently been excellent, averaging over 20 homers and 112 RBIs over his last three full seasons and with a batting average the right side of .300.
Last season - 2nd. This season - 3rd. I just don't see this club as being one with sufficient strength in depth to get to the World Series two years in a row. But this division is so strong, it's almost impossible to predict. Nobody - including me - had this club pegged as a 95-win ballclub last year, so nobody - including me - has any right to write them off this time around either. Detroit led the majors in ERA last year, and that counts for a lot.
Minnesota Twins
Preseason changes - It isn't often a team is able to boast a Cy Young, an MVP and a batting champion in the same season. Yet the Twins can, fresh from a somewhat shocking surge into the postseason via their first AL Central title since 2005 and their fourth in five years. Add to those achievements one of THE breakout pitchers of the season in rookie phenom Francisco Liriano and you've got a lot to be thankful for if you're a Minnesota fan. But it isn't all rosy for the ballclub - longtime starter and career Twin Brad Radke retired, and Liriano won't pitch at all in '07 due to Tommy John surgery. Consequently they have some work to do to patch up their arms, and they attempted to do so by acquiring Ramon Ortiz and Sidney Ponson from the Nationals and Yankees respectively. Jeff Cirillo should provide competition for the corner infield positions after a successful comeback spell with the Brewers.
Strengths - Who is the best pitcher in the league? Johan Santana. Who is the best catcher? Joe Mauer. Who is the best defensive centre fielder? Torii Hunter. Who is the best young first baseman? Well, Ryan Howard...but after him it's Justin Morneau. These are the Twins' core strengths, and they'll be looking to them to provide the day-in, day-out consistency that they managed to in 2006. Add to that little mix the unbelievably strong bullpen exploits of Joe Nathan and friends, and you have the backbone of a nifty little team.
Weaknesses - Their rotation is at least two slots worse than it was last year, given the Radke and Liriano situations, and guys like Ponson, Ortiz and Boof Bonser won't help enough. Their bullpen will need to be as lights-out as it has been of late to offset the lost innings and wins from those two absentees, and an offense that has a power-less look to it might struggle to win games from behind the "other four" of the starting staff.
Key Man - Lew Ford. Only kidding, it's Johan Santana...obviously. I can't really say anything about this guy that you won't already know, other than the fact he won the Major League pitching Triple Crown (leading in wins, strikeouts and ERA) - the first time it's been done since the mid-eighties. That means he's really, really good.
Last season - 1st. This season - 4th. I wouldn't want to beat up on the Twins' chances just because I'm an Indians fan, but even their most die-hard supporters must be heading into the forthcoming season with a little less hope than perhaps they normally would - especially given their status as divisional champions last year. I just don't see that happening again in '06. But I'm such a big fan of the Twins' core talent that I'm happy to be proved wrong.
Kansas City Royals
Preseason changes - We both know what I'm going to say, but I'm going to say it anyway. The Royals have been a poor team for as long as anyone can remember - stretching back well over a decade anyway - so nobody really expects anything of them any more. Not only that, but it's difficult to look at their organisation and pinpoint where the improvements are going to come from. However they have at least tried to reinforce their roster this offseason, and that'll at least give Royals fans some hope for the season ahead. Their main acquisition was an eyebrow-raisngly expensive one, paying $55m over five years for undistinguished former Mariners starter Gil Meche and a little less for undistinguished ex-Met Brian Bannister. Badly-needed relief help also arrived in David Riske and Octavio Dotel, and Jason LaRue will jostle for time behind the plate with holdover John Buck. Former White Sox benchwarmer Ross Gload could also feature heavily. Also watch out for a possible Majors return from Zach Greinke, who missed the vast majority of 2006 with a nervous disorder but still has the potential talent to be a success at this level.
Strengths - Simply put, the Royals' hopes lie in what they don't have yet. Long-awaited prospect Alex Gordon is expected to start the season with the third base job and will probably be worth waiting for. Now that Delmon Young is out of the Minors and in a Tampa Bay uniform, he's probably the best prospect in baseball. Outfielder Billy Butler is almost as anticipated and could get a mid-season call-up. Coupled with the expected return to form of once-heralded starting prospect Zach Greinke, the mid-season recovery of Scott Elarton, a healthy Mark Teahen and Reggie Sanders, and a late-2006 pickup of form, there are signs of life at this ballclub through the mists of mediocrity. Oh, and maybe Mike Sweeney will get healthy too - that'd be huge for them.
Weaknesses - Well, there are going to be a few of those on a 100-loss ballclub, aren't there? Especially when you're forced to call Mark Redman, an 11-win pitcher with a plus-5 ERA, your staff ace. I won't bore you with specifics, but the Royals need to improve everywhere. Starting pitching, relief pitching, offense - all major concerns here. Teahen and Sweeney can't do it all, and probably won't.
Key Man - Mark Teahen and not Alex Gordon. The 2006 Royals Player of the Year had a very promising sophomore year at Kauffman Stadium, despite playing just 109 games after a spell back in the Minors and a season-ending shoulder injury. Somewhere in the region of 25-30 homers, 90-100 RBIs and 10-15 steals is not an unrealistic proposition. This boy gon' be good.
Last season - 5th. This season - 5th. Kansas may just have turned a corner in their long-awaited rebuild, but they'll still do pretty well to avoid a 90-something loss season. Still, progress is progress, and Royals fans will take some of that any day of the week.
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AMERICAN LEAGUE - WEST
Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim
Preseason changes - The Angels were desperate to splash the cash on a marquee free-agent signing to help their ailing offense - trouble is, they couldn't find one, so they ended up giving all that money to a player with some question marks over him. Their pitching was as solid as it ever has been, but it was their patchy offense that let them down last term and many people will wonder whether it was really solved with the $50m signing of 32-year-old Gary Matthews Jr. He had a career year in 2006, hitting 19 home runs and 79 RBIs, and played very solid defense, but the Angels' front office will be hoping that it's the sign of a late-blooming player rather than a flash in the pan season. Shea Hillenbrand was signed from the Giants to DH and should help to replace the pleasantly surprising offense that Juan Rivera supplied before going down with a severe leg-break in the offseason, and a further slab of bullpen help was added with the arrivals of Justin Speier and long reliever Darren Oliver from the Blue Jays and Mets.
Strengths - The Angels have built their recent successes on strong starting and relief pitching, and they've bolstered this even further with the offseason captures of Oliver and Speier. They have the best one-two bullpen punch in the game with Scot Shields and Francisco "K-Rod" Rodriguez, and their one-to-five starting rotation (Lackey-Escobar-Weaver-Santana-Saunders) looks great even before you factor in the return of former Cy Young winner Bartolo Colon from injury - ETA late March - and has a nice balance of youth and experience few other teams could match. A lot will be placed on the shoulders of some of the youngsters, particularly new infield starters Casey Kotchman and Howie Kendrick, but expect both to pass their full-season tests with flying colours.
Weaknesses - They say that pitching wins championships, and if that's true then you might want to consider an early flutter on the Angels to go all the way. But you need a little offense somewhere too, and it's an Anaheim weakness they're fully aware of. Behind Guerrero, there simply isn't a lot of protection. Defense is also a major concern, although Matthews Jr. should go some way towards helping there, as is the prospect of having two new starters at the right side of the infield. Let's hope they're practicing their double-play turns right now.
Key Man - Vladimir Guerrero. Perhaps the most obvious "Key Man" choice out there, because Big Bad Vlad really is the main man in Anaheim. His All-Star performance in his three years in California (.328, 35 homers, 117 RBIs on average) mean more to this team than any other players' production, and the ballclub will be hoping that the slight decline in his numbers last season will hold itself off for a little while yet.
Last season - 2nd. This season - 1st. It's going to be a closer division than it normally is, I feel, and I'm giving the nod to the Angels very tentatively. There are a lot of variables with this team - but they're strong in depth, so provided some of those variables turn out alright they should win this division.
Oakland Athletics
Preseason changes - Talk about an eventful offseason. The A's, after reaching yet another unexpected American League championship series, sacked their manager, then lost their best hitter and pitcher to free agency. Frank Thomas and Barry Zito were never going to be paid the big money they'd earned by a notoriously stingy Oakland front office (you've read Moneyball) so their departures perhaps weren't as shocking as they seem, but their absence will certainly be felt when the box scores start coming in. Still, at least those were the only changes in the core Oakland lineup, and eight of the nine players who finished the season in the starting lineup will be back with the team again next year. Mike Piazza will take Thomas' place in the DH spot and may just prove to be a bargain along the same levels, and Rich Harden will settle into Zito's mantle as the staff ace. Other than a late pickup of outfielder Shannon Stewart from the Twins to provide competition and cover, it's business and usual for Billy Beane and his team.
Strengths - The A's are never going to be one of their teams that astound you with thrilling Home Run Derby-style slugfests or Herculean feats of strength at the Coliseum. They are a team which thrives on efficiency - getting on base rules all - although you can always rely on a Nick Swisher or an Eric Chavez for an ounce or two of extra-base power. If Dan Johnson and Bobby Crosby can get themselves fixed up and fulfil their long-awaited potential over a full season, the A's look intriguing - and the rotation and bullpen should survive without the exploits of Zito if Harden is healthy. Rich Harden could be as good as Zito if he stays fit and strong, no doubt about that. Look for youngsters such as Daric Barton, Travis Buck, Jason Windsor and Shane Komine to make inroads this season too.
Weaknesses - Critics and baseball writers always look at the A's preseason and say "well, they just don't have anything". But they always confound everyone by taking that nothing and turning it into something, namely 90-something wins and a postseason visit. However, their incredible luck's going to run out at some point or other. I don't want to repeat myself too much, but they lost Barry Zito. And Frank Thomas. That's 20 quality starts, a few dozen home runs and over a hundred RBIs. The offense in particular is worth its weight in gold in a lineup like this. The A's also have practically no bench depth, so an injury or two would devastate them.
Key Man - Rich Harden. Harden is healthy now, but the slew of injuries he's had over the last couple of years have made his presence a question mark to the team and its management. He'll need to fulfil his ace-like potential for the A's to push forth to the postseason.
Last season - 1st. This season - 2nd. The A's don't look great on paper. But they never do, and nobody else in the AL West does either. Another playoff appearance isn't out of the question, but I wouldn't put Moneyball on it.
Seattle Mariners
Preseason changes - The Mariners are somewhat of a strange team to try and analyze. I don't know if this is because they're right up there in the northwest, so far away from everyone else, or because it's a team that don't tend to make the news a lot, or what - but I'll give it a try. The front office have virtually rebuilt the M's rotation almost from scratch, bringing in three veteran starters - Jeff Weaver, Miguel Batista and Horacio Ramirez - to complement holdover Jarrod Washburn and "King" Felix Hernandez. They also added some bullpen help in the shape of Chris Reitsma and leftie journeyman Arthur Rhodes to slot in behind closer J.J Putz. Offensively, the M's have taken on something of a gamble, signing veterans Jose Guillen and Jose Vidro from the Nationals. Guillen is back from Tommy John surgery and is likely to be ready for the season, while Vidro is injury-prone and is hoping a stint at DH will keep him stronger over the course of a full season.
Strengths - This is a club that's coming off a strong finish towards the end of a troubled 2006 season, and they will be looking to build on that. Their rotation has the feel of one which has something to prove, but an improvement over last year can be tentatively expected. Similarily he bullpen looks solid, if not spectacular. I really like the young middle infield of this team, in the shape of Jose Lopez and Yuniesky Betancourt - defensively they're both fantastic to watch - and there are some old hands dotted about the lineup such as Richie Sexson (34 home runs last term), Adrian Beltre (25), Guillen and Vidro. Above-average-to-good seasons from those four guys might turn the Mariners into surprise contenders.
Weaknesses - Run-scoring potential. The Mariners have finished second-from-bottom in the runs category two years in a row now, and they don't seem to have improved things drastically with what they've brought in. If they had some great arms in the pitching-focused AL West they might be able to get away with it, but they don't - they just have a lot of average ones. Although Felix Hernandez is still only 20 he's going to have to come up with his "ace"-game sooner or later, because the rotation needs his potential.
Key Man - Ichiro. A perennial contender for the batting title and MVP. He'll give you 200 hits, a bunch of steals, and some highlight-reel defence. He's now more important than ever after being moved to center field full-time.
Last season - 4th. This season - 3rd. The Mariners' offense is average at best, and the pitching isn't much better. That's not a recipe for a contender - but this is a team with a lot more upside than downside, so you never know. Manager Mike Hargrove is more excited than most over this new season for his team, so we'll need to give his guys a chance to show us what they can do.
Texas Rangers
Preseason changes - Powerhouse outfielder Carlos Lee, reliable right-hander Adam Eaton and consistent infielder Mark DeRosa all fled Arlington for big free-agent contracts elsewhere. Not to mention the gleefully surprising monster year (for him) from Gary Matthews Jr. By means of a replacement the Rangers decided to go with a cost-effective veteran who's seen it all before in Kenny Lofton. Or was that Sammy Sosa? They're both on board, and while they might not make the headlines they once did they could both prove to be decent pickups for very little outlay. The pitching staff has gone through a renaissance with a plethora of new and positive options to improve the Rangers' biggest ongoing problem. Brandon McCarthy was snagged in a notable trade with the White Sox and will plug straight into the rotation around the #3 slot, and Jamey Wright . Former lights-out closer Eric Gagne will be back in spring camp after a horrendous two-year spell of injuries, and Willie Eyre and Mike Wood may both be of use. Bruce Chen may also provide competition after a pretty dire year with the Orioles in '06.
Strengths - There are some definite strengths at Texas this season - some of them new, some of them not. The Rangers are blessed with more natural pitching talent than at perhaps any point in their prior history - youngsters such as McCarthy, Tejeda, Rupe, Rheinecker, Koronka, Volquez and Loe are all legitimate candidates for big, big breakout years in 2006 - and they'll head into this season with some strong pitching depth (don't forget last year's closer Akinori Otsuka, 32-of-36 in save opportunities, isn't even their closer any more). Mark Teixeira and Michael Young are great professionals and consistent All-Star performers, and don't expect that to change.
Weaknesses - There are a lot, so please don't think me as lazy if I just kind of list them. Manager Ron Washington will spend the Spring sifting through mediocre starting talent to build a rotation behind ace Kevin Millwood. Brad Wilkerson and Nelson Cruz in the corner outfields just don't inspire me. Sosa hasn't had a good year since 2003. Gagne might well be a walking injury timebomb. Kenny Lofton is a huge downgrade from Gary Matthews, who wasn't a particularly great asset to start with. Hank Blalock needs to pick it up, and quickly. And who are all these guys in the bullpen?
Key Man - Kevin Millwood. "Woody" will be looked upon to provide leadership and guidance to the Rangers' sackful of young pitching talent. He's always been able to be relied on for quintessentially "good" seasons, and is the one consistent factor in this tentative Rangers pitching crew. He'll really, really need to be good.
Last season - 3rd. This season - 4th. The 2006 preseason seemed to be one of those years where every team managed to improve themselves on paper - everyone traded around and acquired this player and that player and managed to make themselves look stronger. But not so this year. Some teams look less attractive than they did at the end of last season, and unfortunately Texas was one of them. Although I'm really excited about their young pitching prospects for all sorts of reasons, I have a horrible feeling they'll slip behind Seattle for one season at least.
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AMERICAN LEAGUE - EAST
New York Yankees
Preseason changes - The more things change, the more they stay the same. Despite the Motown Massacre and an unexpected defeat to the Tigers in the ALDS last year, the Yankees continue to be the monster on the American League horizon that they usually are. The biggest loss to their league-leading run production will be Gary Sheffield, ironically Tigers-bound, but which should be offset by a full season from a healthy Hideki Matsui after missing a large part of 2006 with a wrist injury. Bernie Williams may or may not have said farewell to his familiar pinstripe uniform, as the ballclub decide whether or not his services are required. But it's pitching that's proved to be a thorn in New York's side over the past couple of years, and they now appear to have the strength in depth to cover any sudden injuries or losses of form. Old boy Andy Pettitte rejoins to give them a lefty presence to replace that of Randy Johnson, who ended his rollercoaster two-year stint with the club. Kei Igawa, an unknown but promising factor from Japan, comes in to fill the gap left by Jaret Wright's trade to Baltimore. Luis Vizcaino is the main bullpen addition, having been brought in from Arizona in the Johnson trade. Veteran 1B Doug Mientkiewicz also joins, which will allow slugger Jason Giambi to concentrate on his DH duties and not get hurt every ten minutes in the field.
Strengths - Again, there's really no need to highlight the offensive potential the Yankees have in their batting lineup. Alex Rodriguez, Derek Jeter, a fit-again Giambi, Bobby Abreu - all names you know, and all names you know are more than capable of bringing the runs in. Notable pitching strengthening, both in the 'pen and in the rotation, should make a difference too - if anything goes wrong with their starting five they have options such as Darrell Rasner, Jeff Karstens and uber-prospect Phillip Hughes waiting in the wings. Basically, nothing's gotten worse, which is ominous enough for everyone else in itself.
Weaknesses - If there was still a question mark over the Bombers' upcoming season, it would still be pitching-related. The bullpen still looks a little suspect behind ageing saves supremo Mariano Rivera, despite the additions of Vizcaino and hard-throwing wideboy sophomore Chris Britton. Contrary to what you might have read in the remarkably cynical sporting press - A-Rod and Jeter hate each other, Rivera's arm will fall off if he pitches more than a single inning in a weekend, George Steinbrenner will commit baseball genocide if his team don't win a World Series this time - everything else looks okay.
Key Man - Andy Pettitte. Much has been made of his return to the Bronx, and much of that has managed to gloss over the fact that he didn't actually have that great of a 2006 - his ERA and WHIP were up, his wins were down. Pettitte could be the man that New York turn to if rotation issues (such as the elderly Mussina suffering arm troubles, the surprise of the season Chien-Ming Wang not producing his sophomore success, the ever-suspect Carl Pavano getting hurt again, or Kei Igawa proving to be another false dawn from the Land of the Rising Sun) rear their ugly head again. You could go with A-Rod in this section, but deep down everybody knows he'll produce like an All-Star as usual, so no worries there.
Last season - 1st. This season - 1st. Little needed to be tweaked at the Bronx this winter, other than a re-affirmation of ambition. If the Yankees are ever to win another World Series, it will probably be with a group of players much less talented than this.
Boston Red Sox
Preseason changes - The poetically beautiful World Series win of 2004 is now threatening to become a distant memory for the Red Sox. It's tough enough for BoSox fans to be perpetual runners-up to division mates the Yankees (it's been 11 years since they've managed to finish ahead of their illustrious East Coast neighbours) - but last year they couldn't even manage that, slipping behind the Toronto Blue Jays in the East pecking order for the first time since 1994. Sure they still finished 10 games above .500, but that's not going to be enough for a fanbase as accustomed to achievement as Boston's. Still, things are looking up for the boys from Beantown, as GM Theo Epstein has managed to put together a vastly improved outfit from the one that finished last season. Joining veterans Curt Schilling and Tim Wakefield in what is arguably one of the very best rotations in the American League will be Japanese "rookie" Daisuke Matsuzaka, who pitched dominantly throughout his career in Asia and will be a focal point of Boston's early-season form. The infield and outfield will have at least one new face each too - J.D Drew will man right field after a mammoth $70m, five-year deal, and Julio Lugo will see the majority of time at shortstop. Pitchers Joel Pineiro (from the Mariners), Runelvys Hernandez (Royals), Brendan Donnelly and J.C Romero (both Angels) will slot into various bullpen roles. There have been wholesale coaching changes, too.
Strengths - Boston were scrabbling around for starting pitching at points during last year, with very mixed degrees of success, but that should be avoided this time around - as well as Matsuzaka, Schilling and Wakefield, last year's closer Jon Papelbon will be returned to the rotation, and the bullpen has been solidified somewhat too. Offense shouldn't be a problem either - alongside the ever-dependable David Ortiz there should be a fit-and-focused Manny Ramirez and a keen-to-impress J.D Drew. Show me a more dangerous trio in the A.L and I'll show you a decent Steve Mclaren haircut.
Weaknesses - Now that Papelbon is back to being a starter after a very successful season at closer, the BoSox don't have a natural replacement to handle ninth-inning duties, especially as his predecessor Keith Foulke didn't re-sign with the club. There are a handful of candidates, the leader being failed starter Joel Pineiro, but nobody really stands out as being anywhere Papelbon's league. Oh, and will the enigmatic Manny go AWOL at some point during the season?
Key Man - Manny Ramirez. Everyone knows how important he is to this team. But does he? More importantly, does he care? The Red Sox look so much more formidable with Ramirez in their side to give Big Papi some protection, and without him they can look one-dimensional and offensively flimsy. With him and Ortiz alongside offensive tools like walks machine Kevin Youkilis and new lead-off man Lugo, they look like they could go far.
Last season - 3rd. This season - 2nd. They've made the improvements they badly needed to make, and maybe even more - on paper they look good to compete with the Yankees on a level footing again. If everyone can stay reasonably healthy, expect a Wild Card race at the very least.
Toronto Blue Jays
Preseason changes - It's all about the Hurt. After the Blue Jays' free-spending 2005 offseason, it was wondered whether their front office would ever dare to put hands-in-pockets again. But they did, and it resulted in a two-year, $18m contract for Frank Thomas, the man they call the Big Hurt. One heck of a payrise for a player who took home just $500,000 last year with the A's, but if he can put up similar numbers to those of 2006 he'll be worth every cent. The other major positional addition is Royce Clayton, who should take most of John McDonald's at-bats at shortstop. The Jays will attempt to offset the loss of Ted Lilly to the Cubs by filling the rear slots of their rotation with veteran free agents Tomo Ohka and John Thomson. They also said goodbye to catcher Bengie Molina (Giants), Frank Catalanotto (Rangers) and bullpen ace Justin Speier (Angels).
Strengths - Adding Big Hurt to a lineup already stacked with offensive power in the shape of Troy Glaus, Vernon Wells, Lyle Overbay and a healthy Alex Rios seems to imply that they feel they can clobber teams to death every night. Well, I'm more or less inclined to agree with them - and they just about have the pitching reliability to carry it off. Roy Halladay is the best pitcher of his type out there, and closer B.J Ryan is forging his reputation as one of the premier AL firemen.
Weaknesses - Outside of Halladay, A.J Burnett and maybe Gus Chacin, the bottom of the Jays' rotation isn't set and could be suspect. There are no shortage of possibilities - Ohka is the favourite for one, along woth Thomson, Shawn Marcum, Casey Janssen and Josh Towers - but none of those will be of particularly sterling quality.
Key Man - Roy Halladay. His name seems to have become synonymous with the word "injury", so this may be why his reputation doesn't command the same respect as Johan Santana's. But he's probably the bets pitcher in the division when he's healthy, and the Jays' rotation looks half-empty without him.
Last season - 2nd. This season - 3rd. They're no worse than they were last year - I just have a feeling that the Red Sox are that much better to leapfrog them again. Don't count them out though, their run-scoring ability has the potential to be jaw-dropping.
Baltimore Orioles
Preseason changes - Here's the thing with the Orioles - every year, their name is briefly linked with the top free agent prospects on the market. And every year, said free agent prospects say "no thanks" to whatever the O's are offering and move elsewhere, usually for just a little more than the O's are offering. So when the front office gave Sam Perlozzo $42m extra to spend, it wasn't that he didn't want to spend it on a Soriano or a J.D Drew or whoever, it's that he couldn't. Instead he went out and shopped for a few pieces to improve the worst part of his ballclub's 2006 roster - the bullpen. The only guys that held onto their jobs are young closer Chris Ray and Todd Williams - but they'll now be joined in the newly-enriched relief corps by former closer Danys Baez, leftie Jamie Walker, submariner Chad Bradford, John Parrish and former Rookie of the Year Scott Williamson. Jaret Wright adds to the rotation in a trade from the Yankees, and former Devil Ray and Astro LF/3B Aubrey Huff will share the offensive load - as will LF Jay Payton, in from the A's.
Strengths - Same as always. One of the better offensive middle infields in baseball, Miguel Tejada and Brian Roberts, should continue to post great numbers at production-thin positions. But it's the pitching that will improve the Orioles this year after an appalling '06. A rotation of Erik Bedard, Daniel Cabrera, Jaret Wright, Adam Loewen and (at the time of writing) Steve Trachsel looks a lot better than last year's (Bruce Chen, Rodrigo Lopez), even with the likely season-ending injury to Kris Benson. Not to mention the bullpen, which has gone from looking like one of the worst (13th in ERA last year) to one of the best. There's also a lot of youth in the team (Cabrera, Patterson, Markakis, Loewen, Penn, Gomez, Stern, Burres) that can be relied on to get better.
Weaknesses - If Tejada and catcher Ramon Hernandez don't get it done offensively every night, where do the runs come from? The acquisition of the useful Huff will help some, and Nick Markakis projects to improve from a nice and solid .291-16-62 rookie year, but these guys just aren't in the same league as the other hitters they're facing in this division every week. Oh, and relying on youth is fine - provided the youth comes through for you.
Key Man - Miguel Tejada. Who else? No matter what the O's are planning for other areas of their team, they're banking on Miggy having his usual All-Star season as the best power-hitting shortstop in the game.
Last season - 4th. This season - 4th. Making steady improvements year-on-year and putting faith in the kids - that's what'll get the Orioles back near the top of the division again. Might take a couple of years, but they're heading in the right direction.
Tampa Bay Devil Rays
Preseason changes - Call me crazy, and forgive me for thinking so, but I thought the aim of the offseason was to find out what your weaknesses are and draft in some help to make them less of a weakness? Given this simple approach to "getting better", you have to wonder why the D-Rays decided not to do much shopping and stick with more or less the same roster they finished up with last year. Free agent 3rd baseman Akinori Iwamura arrived from Japan in another one of those "posting" situations, and looks to be a useful slugger, but 3rd base is the one position the Rays are strong at. Jae Kuk Ryu, a Korean right-hander from the Cubs, and Scott Dohmann, another rightie from Kansas, were picked up along with infielder Brendan Harris from the Reds. Umm...actually, that's it.
Strengths - Despite looking woefully weak on paper, the Rays do have some notable strengths. Scott Kazmir may not be THE young pitcher on everyone's minds any more because of the glut of breakthough rookies last season, but he's still better than most of them. They also boast one of the best young outfields in baseball, with the multi-tool Carl Crawford, Rocco Baldelli, Jonny Gomes and Delmon Young (yes, him) expected to get better and provide the bulk of the offense in Florida. There's plenty of other young talent washing around at this ballclub, more so than most - B.J Upton, Evan (not Eva) Longoria, Elijah Dukes and Ben Zobrist spring to mind, and you don't have to look too far beneath the surface to find more.
Weaknesses - An Earl Weaver quote for you - "Nobody likes to hear it, because it's dull, but the reason you win or lose is darn near always the same - pitching." And the Rays have precious little of that. You can have all the durable batters and outfield prospects you like, but if you don't have solid, reliable pitching in your ballclub you're not going to win games. And the Rays don't have solid, reliable pitching. It might not be quite as bad as it looks on paper, but it's pretty bad. Their rotation is potentially deep, but it's stacked with guys of roughly the same ability - and their ability is nothing to write home about. Casey Fossum, Tim Corcoran, J.P Howell...? These guys, in this division?
Key Man - Scott Kazmir, without a shadow of a doubt. The hopes of the entire Tampa Bay pitching staff rest on his young shoulders, and not unreasonably so either. His talent is there for all to see - at the tender age of 23 he's more or less already reached ace level and is the only real proven pitching quality on this team. If he goes down hurt as he did last year, expect the Rays to struggle more than they're likely to anyway. He'll need to stay healthy and throw like he did in his injury-shortened 2006 (10-8, 3.24 ERA) - if he does, the world is his oyster.
Last season - 5th. This season - 5th. The Rays are a difficult team to hate. But you have to improve an awful lot to make headway in a division like this, and I just don't think the Rays have improved at all. As promising as some of their youngsters are, you need pitching to win.
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AMERICAN LEAGUE - CENTRAL
Chicago White Sox
Preseason changes - It's easy to forget that the White Sox are just one season departed from having "World Champions" written across their collective foreheads. The reasons are few and a little unfair. They didn't make the postseason in 2006, partly because they were battling it out in the same division as eventual World Series runners-up the Tigers and everyone's favourite dark horses the Twins. Also, their cross-town neighbours the Cubs have stolen a lot of the preseason limelight by collecting an expensive shopping list of players as long as A.J Pierzynski's throwing arm. But make no mistake about it, the Pale Hose are still a formidable and well-rounded outfit still capable of great things. Aside from a few tweaks here and there, the Sox return in the same shape as they departed our screens in September. The bullpen has been rebuilt a little in the shape of promising (and towering) flamethrower Andrew Sisco from the Royals and former Cubs and Giants reliever David Aardsma. Gavin Floyd (from the Phillies) is a straight replacement for Freddy Garcia in an otherwise unchanged rotation, and Darin Erstad (Angels) will provide infield and outfield cover (and maybe just snag himself an everyday job). Look for starting prospects John Danks (Rangers) and Gio Gonzalez (Phillies) to make waves at some point too.
Strengths - Mark Buehrle, Jose Contreras and Jon Garland are still at the top of the rotation - and trying to pick the ace from those three is like trying to pick your least favourite Neville brother. Jermaine Dye is coming off an MVP-calibre career year, and is one of the better multi-tool oufielders in the game. Sox skipper Ozzie Guillen continues to have the ability to extract every last drop of offensive utilization from his team at every opportunity, playing the "small-ball" game better than most, and he has built himself a team that responds well to his managerial style. Simply put, they look solid.
Weaknesses - Their offense beyond Thome and Dye looks a little ordinary, their center field candidates (and outfield depth) leave a little to be desired, Thome is unlikely to play too much during Interleague play and their bullpen has a few variables in it. But these are the only outstanding issues on a team that looks fairly strong from top to bottom. I wouldn't write off their 2007 postseason chances based on anything I've just mentioned. Would you?
Key Man- Jermaine Dye. AL Comeback Player of the Year Jim Thome got back to his best during last season, but Dye stepped it up a notch with one heck of a career year too and will be looked on to get close to that kind of performance again this year.
Last season - 3rd. This season - 1st. Not because they've improved particularly drastically, but because they've bolstered in certain crucial areas - and I don't believe their two main divisional rivals from last year, the Twins and Tigers, will be able to post the same win totals.
Cleveland Indians
Preseason changes - The Indians were woefully disappointing last term, and manager Eric Wedge came under some criticism for not managing a talented young team correctly. GM Mark Shapiro didn't mess around in the offseason - he identified the Tribe's main weakness, relief pitching, then went right out and fixed it. A revamped bullpen features not one, but two new closing options - Joe Borowski (Marlins) and Roberto Hernandez (Mets) - who, along with Aaron Fultz (Phillies) and should improve a dire 2006 relief corps. Former Red Sox closer Keith Foulke was also brought to Ohio as a free agent, but decided to retire instead. Second base will also feature a talented young newcomer in Josh Barfield, brought over in a trade with the Padres after an impressive rookie season. Veterans David Dellucci and Trot Nixon will platoon in the outfield to add some much-needed experience to the Indians' lineup.
Strengths - Only the Yankees scored more runs last year than the Tribe, and that trend looks set to continue. Grady Sizemore isn't a natural leadoff man, but he is a multi-tool outfielder capable of very big things indeed, and with sluggers like Victor Martinez and the dominative Travis Hafner batting behind him this team will always score runs. A solid, experienced rotation (Sabathia, Byrd, Westbrook, Lee) tinged with youthful promise (Sowers, Carmona) should rank amongst the league's best. Barfield has a very high ceiling of accomplishment, and Cleveland fans are anticipating a great sophomore year for him.
Weaknesses - This year some of the same problems remain, such as catcher Martinez's and the infield squads' defensive liabilities, especially up the middle. This should be helped somewhat by the capture of Barfield, but shortstop Jhonny Peralta will have to improve twofold if he wants to keep his everyday job. Also, why can't this ballclub bunt or base run very well? Those are baseball fundamentals, Wedgie.
Key Man - Travis Hafner. Everyone knows about Pronk's ability to mash a baseball - but the one thing stopping his name being uttered in the same breath as Albert Pujols or David Ortiz is that he has yet to play a full season for the Indians due to an unfortunate catalogue of injuries. If he stays fit and plays 150+ games....well, prepare to be amazed.
Last season - 4th. This season - 2nd. I try and stay as impartial as possible with these things, so please allow me a single moment of favouritism by putting my Tribe above the Tigers and Twins and earmarking them as potential challengers for what is, undoubledly, THE toughest division in the game. It isn't that hard to believe.
Detroit Tigers
Preseason changes - The Tigers counted on two primary strengths to get themselves to their first World Series since 1984 - a stellar bullpen, a reliable starting pitching crew and a penchant for hitting the home run. So it might seem odd to some that these are precisely the two areas that the Detroit front office chose to go and improve on ready for 2007. They added a useful piece to their setup system in veteran Jose Mesa from the Rockies, and another potentially important asset with young leftie Edward Campusano, a Rule 5 draftee formerly in the Cubs system. But perhaps their most exciting pickup was that of former Yankees motormouth Gary Sheffield, who will split his time between the DH slot and covering the corner outfield positions. Other than that it was a pretty quiet winter in the Motor City.
Strengths - They had no less than seven players slap at least 15 home runs last year - and the home run still seems to be the Tigers' preferred weapon of choice, boasting such assets as Craig Monroe, Marcus Thames, Magglio Ordonez and Curtis Granderson. Ordonez aside, these guys won't hit for a high average - but they'll hit hard. That counts for a lot alongside experienced hands like catcher Ivan "Pudge" Rodriguez, Sheffield and Carlos Guillen. Behind a solid, durable rotation featuring the likes of Kenny Rogers and an improving Jeremy Bonderman, plus an eye-wateringly talented bullpen of Fernando Rodney, Todd Jones and Joel Zumaya, the Tigers look and feel like they know what they're doing. If it ain't broke, why fix it?
Weaknesses - The Tigers lineup doesn't have any obvious holes, although some might suggest that guys like Nate Robertson and Kenny Rogers will be lucky to have seasons as strong as did a second time around. It will also do well not to rely too heavily on the big-name acquisition of Gary Sheffield either, as he is entering the back end of a glittering career and can no longer be counted on to underpin the batting order like he was able to in his Seattle and Atlanta days.
Key Man - Tough to pick a single player out as being the lynchpin of an evenly-spread side, but I'm going to go for the often unheralded Magglio Ordonez. His numbers have consistently been excellent, averaging over 20 homers and 112 RBIs over his last three full seasons and with a batting average the right side of .300.
Last season - 2nd. This season - 3rd. I just don't see this club as being one with sufficient strength in depth to get to the World Series two years in a row. But this division is so strong, it's almost impossible to predict. Nobody - including me - had this club pegged as a 95-win ballclub last year, so nobody - including me - has any right to write them off this time around either. Detroit led the majors in ERA last year, and that counts for a lot.
Minnesota Twins
Preseason changes - It isn't often a team is able to boast a Cy Young, an MVP and a batting champion in the same season. Yet the Twins can, fresh from a somewhat shocking surge into the postseason via their first AL Central title since 2005 and their fourth in five years. Add to those achievements one of THE breakout pitchers of the season in rookie phenom Francisco Liriano and you've got a lot to be thankful for if you're a Minnesota fan. But it isn't all rosy for the ballclub - longtime starter and career Twin Brad Radke retired, and Liriano won't pitch at all in '07 due to Tommy John surgery. Consequently they have some work to do to patch up their arms, and they attempted to do so by acquiring Ramon Ortiz and Sidney Ponson from the Nationals and Yankees respectively. Jeff Cirillo should provide competition for the corner infield positions after a successful comeback spell with the Brewers.
Strengths - Who is the best pitcher in the league? Johan Santana. Who is the best catcher? Joe Mauer. Who is the best defensive centre fielder? Torii Hunter. Who is the best young first baseman? Well, Ryan Howard...but after him it's Justin Morneau. These are the Twins' core strengths, and they'll be looking to them to provide the day-in, day-out consistency that they managed to in 2006. Add to that little mix the unbelievably strong bullpen exploits of Joe Nathan and friends, and you have the backbone of a nifty little team.
Weaknesses - Their rotation is at least two slots worse than it was last year, given the Radke and Liriano situations, and guys like Ponson, Ortiz and Boof Bonser won't help enough. Their bullpen will need to be as lights-out as it has been of late to offset the lost innings and wins from those two absentees, and an offense that has a power-less look to it might struggle to win games from behind the "other four" of the starting staff.
Key Man - Lew Ford. Only kidding, it's Johan Santana...obviously. I can't really say anything about this guy that you won't already know, other than the fact he won the Major League pitching Triple Crown (leading in wins, strikeouts and ERA) - the first time it's been done since the mid-eighties. That means he's really, really good.
Last season - 1st. This season - 4th. I wouldn't want to beat up on the Twins' chances just because I'm an Indians fan, but even their most die-hard supporters must be heading into the forthcoming season with a little less hope than perhaps they normally would - especially given their status as divisional champions last year. I just don't see that happening again in '06. But I'm such a big fan of the Twins' core talent that I'm happy to be proved wrong.
Kansas City Royals
Preseason changes - We both know what I'm going to say, but I'm going to say it anyway. The Royals have been a poor team for as long as anyone can remember - stretching back well over a decade anyway - so nobody really expects anything of them any more. Not only that, but it's difficult to look at their organisation and pinpoint where the improvements are going to come from. However they have at least tried to reinforce their roster this offseason, and that'll at least give Royals fans some hope for the season ahead. Their main acquisition was an eyebrow-raisngly expensive one, paying $55m over five years for undistinguished former Mariners starter Gil Meche and a little less for undistinguished ex-Met Brian Bannister. Badly-needed relief help also arrived in David Riske and Octavio Dotel, and Jason LaRue will jostle for time behind the plate with holdover John Buck. Former White Sox benchwarmer Ross Gload could also feature heavily. Also watch out for a possible Majors return from Zach Greinke, who missed the vast majority of 2006 with a nervous disorder but still has the potential talent to be a success at this level.
Strengths - Simply put, the Royals' hopes lie in what they don't have yet. Long-awaited prospect Alex Gordon is expected to start the season with the third base job and will probably be worth waiting for. Now that Delmon Young is out of the Minors and in a Tampa Bay uniform, he's probably the best prospect in baseball. Outfielder Billy Butler is almost as anticipated and could get a mid-season call-up. Coupled with the expected return to form of once-heralded starting prospect Zach Greinke, the mid-season recovery of Scott Elarton, a healthy Mark Teahen and Reggie Sanders, and a late-2006 pickup of form, there are signs of life at this ballclub through the mists of mediocrity. Oh, and maybe Mike Sweeney will get healthy too - that'd be huge for them.
Weaknesses - Well, there are going to be a few of those on a 100-loss ballclub, aren't there? Especially when you're forced to call Mark Redman, an 11-win pitcher with a plus-5 ERA, your staff ace. I won't bore you with specifics, but the Royals need to improve everywhere. Starting pitching, relief pitching, offense - all major concerns here. Teahen and Sweeney can't do it all, and probably won't.
Key Man - Mark Teahen and not Alex Gordon. The 2006 Royals Player of the Year had a very promising sophomore year at Kauffman Stadium, despite playing just 109 games after a spell back in the Minors and a season-ending shoulder injury. Somewhere in the region of 25-30 homers, 90-100 RBIs and 10-15 steals is not an unrealistic proposition. This boy gon' be good.
Last season - 5th. This season - 5th. Kansas may just have turned a corner in their long-awaited rebuild, but they'll still do pretty well to avoid a 90-something loss season. Still, progress is progress, and Royals fans will take some of that any day of the week.
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AMERICAN LEAGUE - WEST
Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim
Preseason changes - The Angels were desperate to splash the cash on a marquee free-agent signing to help their ailing offense - trouble is, they couldn't find one, so they ended up giving all that money to a player with some question marks over him. Their pitching was as solid as it ever has been, but it was their patchy offense that let them down last term and many people will wonder whether it was really solved with the $50m signing of 32-year-old Gary Matthews Jr. He had a career year in 2006, hitting 19 home runs and 79 RBIs, and played very solid defense, but the Angels' front office will be hoping that it's the sign of a late-blooming player rather than a flash in the pan season. Shea Hillenbrand was signed from the Giants to DH and should help to replace the pleasantly surprising offense that Juan Rivera supplied before going down with a severe leg-break in the offseason, and a further slab of bullpen help was added with the arrivals of Justin Speier and long reliever Darren Oliver from the Blue Jays and Mets.
Strengths - The Angels have built their recent successes on strong starting and relief pitching, and they've bolstered this even further with the offseason captures of Oliver and Speier. They have the best one-two bullpen punch in the game with Scot Shields and Francisco "K-Rod" Rodriguez, and their one-to-five starting rotation (Lackey-Escobar-Weaver-Santana-Saunders) looks great even before you factor in the return of former Cy Young winner Bartolo Colon from injury - ETA late March - and has a nice balance of youth and experience few other teams could match. A lot will be placed on the shoulders of some of the youngsters, particularly new infield starters Casey Kotchman and Howie Kendrick, but expect both to pass their full-season tests with flying colours.
Weaknesses - They say that pitching wins championships, and if that's true then you might want to consider an early flutter on the Angels to go all the way. But you need a little offense somewhere too, and it's an Anaheim weakness they're fully aware of. Behind Guerrero, there simply isn't a lot of protection. Defense is also a major concern, although Matthews Jr. should go some way towards helping there, as is the prospect of having two new starters at the right side of the infield. Let's hope they're practicing their double-play turns right now.
Key Man - Vladimir Guerrero. Perhaps the most obvious "Key Man" choice out there, because Big Bad Vlad really is the main man in Anaheim. His All-Star performance in his three years in California (.328, 35 homers, 117 RBIs on average) mean more to this team than any other players' production, and the ballclub will be hoping that the slight decline in his numbers last season will hold itself off for a little while yet.
Last season - 2nd. This season - 1st. It's going to be a closer division than it normally is, I feel, and I'm giving the nod to the Angels very tentatively. There are a lot of variables with this team - but they're strong in depth, so provided some of those variables turn out alright they should win this division.
Oakland Athletics
Preseason changes - Talk about an eventful offseason. The A's, after reaching yet another unexpected American League championship series, sacked their manager, then lost their best hitter and pitcher to free agency. Frank Thomas and Barry Zito were never going to be paid the big money they'd earned by a notoriously stingy Oakland front office (you've read Moneyball) so their departures perhaps weren't as shocking as they seem, but their absence will certainly be felt when the box scores start coming in. Still, at least those were the only changes in the core Oakland lineup, and eight of the nine players who finished the season in the starting lineup will be back with the team again next year. Mike Piazza will take Thomas' place in the DH spot and may just prove to be a bargain along the same levels, and Rich Harden will settle into Zito's mantle as the staff ace. Other than a late pickup of outfielder Shannon Stewart from the Twins to provide competition and cover, it's business and usual for Billy Beane and his team.
Strengths - The A's are never going to be one of their teams that astound you with thrilling Home Run Derby-style slugfests or Herculean feats of strength at the Coliseum. They are a team which thrives on efficiency - getting on base rules all - although you can always rely on a Nick Swisher or an Eric Chavez for an ounce or two of extra-base power. If Dan Johnson and Bobby Crosby can get themselves fixed up and fulfil their long-awaited potential over a full season, the A's look intriguing - and the rotation and bullpen should survive without the exploits of Zito if Harden is healthy. Rich Harden could be as good as Zito if he stays fit and strong, no doubt about that. Look for youngsters such as Daric Barton, Travis Buck, Jason Windsor and Shane Komine to make inroads this season too.
Weaknesses - Critics and baseball writers always look at the A's preseason and say "well, they just don't have anything". But they always confound everyone by taking that nothing and turning it into something, namely 90-something wins and a postseason visit. However, their incredible luck's going to run out at some point or other. I don't want to repeat myself too much, but they lost Barry Zito. And Frank Thomas. That's 20 quality starts, a few dozen home runs and over a hundred RBIs. The offense in particular is worth its weight in gold in a lineup like this. The A's also have practically no bench depth, so an injury or two would devastate them.
Key Man - Rich Harden. Harden is healthy now, but the slew of injuries he's had over the last couple of years have made his presence a question mark to the team and its management. He'll need to fulfil his ace-like potential for the A's to push forth to the postseason.
Last season - 1st. This season - 2nd. The A's don't look great on paper. But they never do, and nobody else in the AL West does either. Another playoff appearance isn't out of the question, but I wouldn't put Moneyball on it.
Seattle Mariners
Preseason changes - The Mariners are somewhat of a strange team to try and analyze. I don't know if this is because they're right up there in the northwest, so far away from everyone else, or because it's a team that don't tend to make the news a lot, or what - but I'll give it a try. The front office have virtually rebuilt the M's rotation almost from scratch, bringing in three veteran starters - Jeff Weaver, Miguel Batista and Horacio Ramirez - to complement holdover Jarrod Washburn and "King" Felix Hernandez. They also added some bullpen help in the shape of Chris Reitsma and leftie journeyman Arthur Rhodes to slot in behind closer J.J Putz. Offensively, the M's have taken on something of a gamble, signing veterans Jose Guillen and Jose Vidro from the Nationals. Guillen is back from Tommy John surgery and is likely to be ready for the season, while Vidro is injury-prone and is hoping a stint at DH will keep him stronger over the course of a full season.
Strengths - This is a club that's coming off a strong finish towards the end of a troubled 2006 season, and they will be looking to build on that. Their rotation has the feel of one which has something to prove, but an improvement over last year can be tentatively expected. Similarily he bullpen looks solid, if not spectacular. I really like the young middle infield of this team, in the shape of Jose Lopez and Yuniesky Betancourt - defensively they're both fantastic to watch - and there are some old hands dotted about the lineup such as Richie Sexson (34 home runs last term), Adrian Beltre (25), Guillen and Vidro. Above-average-to-good seasons from those four guys might turn the Mariners into surprise contenders.
Weaknesses - Run-scoring potential. The Mariners have finished second-from-bottom in the runs category two years in a row now, and they don't seem to have improved things drastically with what they've brought in. If they had some great arms in the pitching-focused AL West they might be able to get away with it, but they don't - they just have a lot of average ones. Although Felix Hernandez is still only 20 he's going to have to come up with his "ace"-game sooner or later, because the rotation needs his potential.
Key Man - Ichiro. A perennial contender for the batting title and MVP. He'll give you 200 hits, a bunch of steals, and some highlight-reel defence. He's now more important than ever after being moved to center field full-time.
Last season - 4th. This season - 3rd. The Mariners' offense is average at best, and the pitching isn't much better. That's not a recipe for a contender - but this is a team with a lot more upside than downside, so you never know. Manager Mike Hargrove is more excited than most over this new season for his team, so we'll need to give his guys a chance to show us what they can do.
Texas Rangers
Preseason changes - Powerhouse outfielder Carlos Lee, reliable right-hander Adam Eaton and consistent infielder Mark DeRosa all fled Arlington for big free-agent contracts elsewhere. Not to mention the gleefully surprising monster year (for him) from Gary Matthews Jr. By means of a replacement the Rangers decided to go with a cost-effective veteran who's seen it all before in Kenny Lofton. Or was that Sammy Sosa? They're both on board, and while they might not make the headlines they once did they could both prove to be decent pickups for very little outlay. The pitching staff has gone through a renaissance with a plethora of new and positive options to improve the Rangers' biggest ongoing problem. Brandon McCarthy was snagged in a notable trade with the White Sox and will plug straight into the rotation around the #3 slot, and Jamey Wright . Former lights-out closer Eric Gagne will be back in spring camp after a horrendous two-year spell of injuries, and Willie Eyre and Mike Wood may both be of use. Bruce Chen may also provide competition after a pretty dire year with the Orioles in '06.
Strengths - There are some definite strengths at Texas this season - some of them new, some of them not. The Rangers are blessed with more natural pitching talent than at perhaps any point in their prior history - youngsters such as McCarthy, Tejeda, Rupe, Rheinecker, Koronka, Volquez and Loe are all legitimate candidates for big, big breakout years in 2006 - and they'll head into this season with some strong pitching depth (don't forget last year's closer Akinori Otsuka, 32-of-36 in save opportunities, isn't even their closer any more). Mark Teixeira and Michael Young are great professionals and consistent All-Star performers, and don't expect that to change.
Weaknesses - There are a lot, so please don't think me as lazy if I just kind of list them. Manager Ron Washington will spend the Spring sifting through mediocre starting talent to build a rotation behind ace Kevin Millwood. Brad Wilkerson and Nelson Cruz in the corner outfields just don't inspire me. Sosa hasn't had a good year since 2003. Gagne might well be a walking injury timebomb. Kenny Lofton is a huge downgrade from Gary Matthews, who wasn't a particularly great asset to start with. Hank Blalock needs to pick it up, and quickly. And who are all these guys in the bullpen?
Key Man - Kevin Millwood. "Woody" will be looked upon to provide leadership and guidance to the Rangers' sackful of young pitching talent. He's always been able to be relied on for quintessentially "good" seasons, and is the one consistent factor in this tentative Rangers pitching crew. He'll really, really need to be good.
Last season - 3rd. This season - 4th. The 2006 preseason seemed to be one of those years where every team managed to improve themselves on paper - everyone traded around and acquired this player and that player and managed to make themselves look stronger. But not so this year. Some teams look less attractive than they did at the end of last season, and unfortunately Texas was one of them. Although I'm really excited about their young pitching prospects for all sorts of reasons, I have a horrible feeling they'll slip behind Seattle for one season at least.
* This post has been modified
: 18 years ago
