So, Kimi was in Cologne last week. That much seems to be fact. What seems less certain, is whether McLaren is really courting Nico Rosberg - or whether Kimi has already got a contract with Ferrari. Why would he be in Cologne, talking to Toyota, if the latter was the case?
More to the point: Why would Ferrari sign Raikkonen if Schumacher is apparently eager to race for another two years?
Not that Maranello has suddenly lost interest in the Flying Finn. Everybody knows he's the fastest guy in the world, barring perhaps Chuck Norris or Valentino Rossi.
No, just a joke.
But as Renault guru Pat Symonds said in the Silver Diamonds Paddock Club enclosure, after Montoya's Monza victory last year: "In Juan's hands, the McLaren is marginally faster than us. But in Raikkonen's hands, it is significantly faster."
Ferrari, rest assured, would sell Enzo's tombstone to tie the Kimster down.
King Creole
But they have a problem, and it goes by the name of King Creole.
Hey, an Elvis line there?
Yes, but so much more: At Maranello, Schumacher lords over Brits, Germans, South Africans, Italians, Japanese and even Indians, in the form of Tata, which supplies Ferrari soft-ware. They all deify the man.
But Saint Michael is, in fact, a Ferrari problem.
He might still be one of the three best drivers on earth, but a long-term solution he's not.
What Maranello needs now is heavy investment in the future.
And Michael is blocking it.
Which is par for the course, really.
In 1995, Schumacher vetoed David Coulthard as a potential Ferrari team mate for1996. And a move to McLaren in 1999 was turned down when it became clear that he would have to race Mika Hakkinen on equal terms.
Such an approach leaves no room to go head-to-head with Kimi Raikkonen in a bare-fisted fight.
Not at Ferrari. Not anywhere.
Second fiddle
Kimi, conversely, will not be prepared to play second fiddle as Herbert, Irvine and Barrichello have, and like Massa will have to do pretty soon.
Irvine, in fact, out-qualified Schumacher in their first race together.
Johnny Herbert was not too far off either, considering that he only did 12 laps in total at Interlagos, prior to 1995 quali - which he tackled in the T-car.
This after he had beaten Schumacher's best time in an off-the-line sprint, in his maiden outing in a Benetton.
Barrichello also came mightily close in his first run with Ferrari, losing out by 0.027 secs and outqualifying Schumacher in the duo's fourth race together, at Silverstone.
Massa also was just 0.047 secs away of achieving this rather remarkable feat, in his virginal run in a 248 F1, in Bahrain earlier this year.
Even more remarkable, however, is the way these guys fade, after having run Schumacher so close, initially - although Barrichello always came back strongly over the second half of the season during Michael's championship years, once the title had been sewn up.
One could argue that Rubens was always snapping at Michael's heels in Melbourne's season opener, courtesy of the track's point and squirt nature which concertinas drivers together.
Easy answer
But how does one then explain the Brazilian's performance at Imola in 2002, when he was faster than Schumacher right up to the dying moments of qualifying, before the German commandeered the Brazilian's car to pip him by a mere 0.064 secs.
Oh well, these things happen. That's the easy answer.
But there's a pattern here, with a really interesting little side show as well.
Up to that particular weekend at Imola, see, Barrichello had never driven an F2002 in anger, Schumacher having hogged winter testing of the lone chassis all to himself.
Those were the days, remember, when Ferrari never introduced a car at a fly-away event. Imola or Spain, they argued, was much better positioned to deal with the potential teething problems of a new mount.
So, Imola it also was, where Michael did a lot of F2002 testing while Rubens had to hang around, performing all other kinds of piffling little duties. Yet out of the box Rubens nearly had the upper hand - which really cannot be said for his efforts this year at Honda, against Jenson Button.
The same also goes for Massa, who virtually had to learn his way around the 248 F1's cockpit over the Sakhir GP weekend ?- again after Michael had familiarised himself with the car in pre-season testing, to the exclusion of his team mate.
Now, Schumacher is by no means over the hill.
Best behind him
But it is probably fair to say that he's now at a point where his ultimate best is behind him.
He's got a brighter past than future, so to speak.
And herein fosters and festers Ferrari's problem.
For it's not so much that Michael will be unable to deliver over the next two years (although there are worrying signs that he has been tailing off towards season's end, in 2005 and 2004).
No, King Creole will still deliver. By golly, he might even win the title back this year. Or at least carry the flag proudly.
But he won't carry it for much longer.
Which creates the following dilemma:
Ferrari can't refuse Michael if he would like to sign again.
Yet, in doing so Ferrari might lose Raikkonen forever.
That is to say, if the Kimster gets fed-up by being barred from Maranellian pastures and signs a long-term deal with another team.
A matter of choice
Let there be no doubt about it, however: The Finn fears the German not. He will go to Ferrari, if that's his chosen team.
Schumacher however, will simply not accept Kimi.
Not in this life, nor in any other. He'll block him till kingdom come, or until King Creole goes.
The recent news then, that Raikkonen has "put pen to paper" for Ferrari - announced a day after it became clear that Schumacher is seeking another two-year term - was easy to dispel.
Maranello is not an option for Kimi, simply because Kimi is not an option for Michael. The Schu, after all, is a guy who handpicks his team mates.
Try and picture the following then: Michael and Jean Todt bent over a list of names, trying to figure out who Rubens's replacement should be.
"What about Raikkonen, Michael?" the Toad asks in all innocence, if such a state of purity is at all possible for him. "He's young, fast, hungry and the future."
By golly. After so many years of scouting through the bottom half of the list for a partner, it would have pleased Michael didley squat to stare down the barrel of real speed, real talent and real iron in the soul.
Icy soul?
Or might it be ice in the soul?
It nevertheless begs the question: In what state will he leave Maranello behind?
For if no strong driver is recruited over the next two years, if no future champion is nurtured by the existing elite, the post-Schumacher years might be a little bit rudderless and barren.
Time will tell, of course. But if Kimi and the Scuderia are serious about each other, there is a way past the Schumacher dilemma.
Renault, see, is a force that will not disappear overnight.
But they might disappear in two years' time - just at the moment when Ferrari's old age pensioner's patience is due to run out on Michael Schumacher.
And voila! Two years in a strong car for Kimi, coinciding with an open door at Maranello once Michael moves on to create a F1 team for VW or Audi, or whatever.
Neat, is it not?
Focus on the past
Indeed - unless Ferrari's present focus on the past rather than the future (i.e. retaining Schumacher at the cost of Raikkonen) forces the Flying Finn's hand onto a long-term contract with, well, McLaren.
Or perhaps even Toyota?
The latter is unlikely. The world's second biggest car company might be ready for the Ice Man's massive talent in two year's time, but not right now.
Which again begs the question: Why then, was he sniffing around Cologne?
Briatore certainly wants Raikkonen for Renault - although he has the option of Heikki Kovaleinen as a cheap Kimi imitation to impress cost-minded company boss Carlos Ghosn with.
And McLaren's Martin Whitmarsh, so much less inclined to play hard-ball than team principle Ron Dennis, has made no secret of Woking's desire to retain Raikkonen's services - although Dennis, obviously less than impressed by the Finn's flying flirtation with Ferrari, might already have opened discussions with Rosberg.
Hey, it might save him $20-million a year, vis-à-vis Raikkonen's salary.
Crux of the matter
Here's the crux then: the Kimster's ask is stiff indeed. It has to reflect his stature in the game, after all.
But if it was only money that mattered, the Ice Man would have signed for McLaren a long time ago, probably on a deal similar to Alonso's.
What he's after then, is a title winning car. That's what the waiting is all about, to see which way Michael and Mercedes and McLaren will move.
And it's clever, at least on the face of it, to try to eliminate uncertainties and replace them with certainties.
The problem with F1, however, is the speed at which the game changes.
Somewhere down the line then Raikkonen will have to go out on a limb and make a leap of faith, no matter how well he has researched his options.
Racing is simply too fast a game to wait for anybody. If he's not careful, even Kimi might be passed by.
A McLaren. A Renault. A Ferrari.
And what's left for him, then?
Cologne?
* This post has been modified
: 19 years ago
